# Too late to buy Palantir stock (PLTR)? The math behind $38 billion > Text version of the Hype Fund #3 episode of Short Circuit Creations, an animated YouTube channel about hyped stocks. It holds the numbers, sources, chapters and full transcript from the episode page: https://shortcircuitcreations.com/episodes/palantir/ Episode 3 · Published Oct 22, 2026 · Runtime 32:16 · Prices as of Oct 16, 2026 - Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBobEXakaP0 - Channel: [Short Circuit Creations](https://www.youtube.com/@ShortCircuit_Creations) - Episode page: https://shortcircuitcreations.com/episodes/palantir/ Palantir is worth more than Lockheed, Northrop and General Dynamics combined. Those three outsell it 28 to one. Karp's goal: $38 billion in sales by 2030. Say he gets there. What's a Palantir share worth then, and does it beat an index fund? Gus did the math. Prices have moved since. They usually do. Research frozen Oct 16, 2026, written Oct 21, 2026: anything after that has probably changed, because that's how time works. If every number here still matches, you're either very early or stuck in a Groundhog Day loop. ## What does Palantir's price count on? *The short version* Karp's goal, paid up front. At $186.03 a share Palantir costs 148 years of its last twelve months of profit, 184 if it paid a normal 21% tax. If it reaches Karp's goal of [ten times its US sales](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0dYGskaeN-g) by 2030 and then costs 32 years of profit, like Microsoft today, a share is worth about $186, the price it has now: four years for nothing. To keep up with an index fund it has to be worth about $280 in 2030, a P/E of about 48 at the goal. - **$447B**: Market value at $186.03 a share (source: [Napkin math: price × shares on the 10-Q cover](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000041/pltr-20260630.htm)) - **148**: Years of profit in the price (P/E, last 12 months) (source: [Napkin math on the 10-Q](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000041/pltr-20260630.htm)) - **$3.3B → $33B**: Karp's goal: US sales, 2025 to 2030 (source: [Palantir 10-K 2025 · Q2 2025 call](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000011/pltr-20251231.htm)) - **≈ $280**: What a share has to be worth in 2030 to keep up with an index fund (source: [Napkin math: $186 × 1.10 a year to end of 2030](https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/histretSP.html)) Price: [Yahoo Finance](https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/PLTR) close, Oct 16, 2026. "Napkin math" = Gus's calculation on the filed numbers. ## Why is Palantir stock so expensive? *The price* The price counts on growth that hasn't happened yet: Karp's goal of ten times the US sales by 2030. At $186.03 a share Palantir is worth about $447 billion, more than Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman and General Dynamics combined ($294.4 billion). Those three outsell it 28 to one. Measured in years of profit, an S&P 500 index fund costs [26](https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_101626.pdf), Microsoft 29 and Palantir 148. *Palantir against three weapons makers, Oct 16, 2026* | Oct 16, 2026 | Market value | Sales, last 12 months | Source | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | **Palantir** | **$447.0B** | $6.16B | [Palantir 10-Q](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000041/pltr-20260630.htm) | | Lockheed Martin | $127.4B | $77.01B | [SEC XBRL](https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000936468.json) | | Northrop Grumman | $73.9B | $42.89B | [SEC XBRL](https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001133421.json) | | General Dynamics | $93.1B | $54.86B | [GD 10-Q](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/40533/000004053326000032/gd-20260705.htm) | | **The three combined** | **$294.4B** | **$174.76B (28×)** | | - **26**: S&P 500 index fund: years of profit in the price (source: [FactSet Earnings Insight, Oct 16, 2026](https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_101626.pdf)) - **29**: Microsoft (source: [Napkin math on the 10-K, FY2026](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526323660/msft-20260630.htm)) - **148**: Palantir (source: [Napkin math on the 10-Q](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000041/pltr-20260630.htm)) Market value = close on Oct 16, 2026 × shares on each company's latest 10-Q cover (napkin math). Sales = the last twelve months in the companies' filings, via SEC XBRL. [Watch this part on YouTube (0:00)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBobEXakaP0) ## Is Michael Burry betting against Palantir? *The other side* He was in April. On April 10, 2026 he wrote on [his Substack](https://michaeljburry.substack.com/p/trade-alert-friday-april-10-2026) that he owned put options on Palantir, among them puts at a $50 strike that run until June 17, 2027. A put pays off if the stock falls under a set price. From $186.03, $50 is a fall of about 73%. If Burry is right, the Hype Fund takes the hit: it buys Palantir when the episode comes out. **Michael Burry, Substack, Apr 10, 2026** > As you know, I have been short Palantir since the fall, through puts ... I now own the June 17, 2027 Strike Price 50 Puts and the December 18, 2026 Strike Price 100 Puts. Source: [Trade Alert, Apr 10, 2026](https://michaeljburry.substack.com/p/trade-alert-friday-april-10-2026) · In September he sold the December puts and kept the 2027 ones, per [24/7 Wall St.](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/09/10/is-michael-burry-waving-a-white-flag-big-short-investor-reduces-bearish-bets-on-nvda-crwv/) (secondary) - **−73%**: From $186.03 to Burry's $50 (source: Napkin math) - **7 / 2**: Burry's market warnings read in the original since 2009, against the two times the S&P 500 closed 20% below its record (2020, 2022). He got both. (source: Gus's count of Burry's posts and filings) [Watch this part on YouTube (1:13)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBobEXakaP0&t=73) ## What does Palantir actually do? *What you'd be buying* It connects data its customers already have. Those customers keep it in systems that don't talk to each other, so Palantir sends [forward-deployed engineers](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000011/pltr-20251231.htm) to link them, and its software pulls everything into one view and looks for patterns. Since 2023 there's an AI layer on top, [AIP](https://www.palantir.com/newsroom/letters/aip-in-action/en/): you type a question and it answers from all of it. The customers: armies, spy agencies, hospitals, shipyards. And ICE. **Palantir 10-K 2025** > We are not in the business of collecting, mining, or selling data. Source: [Annual report](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000011/pltr-20251231.htm) **Alex Karp, Q2 2025 earnings call, Aug 4, 2025, 33:15** > the 10X revenue we are going to get in the US over the next, in my view, next five years Source: [Palantir's webcast](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0dYGskaeN-g) | Customer | What it buys | Source | | --- | --- | --- | | Armies | US Army enterprise agreement, up to $10B over ten years (a ceiling) | [USAspending](https://www.usaspending.gov/award/CONT_IDV_W519TC25D0039_9700) | | Spy agencies | Palantir's description of its customers | | | Hospitals | Palantir for Hospitals | [palantir.com](https://www.palantir.com/offerings/palantir-for-hospitals/) | | Shipyards | ShipOS for the US Navy, up to $448M over two years | [The Register](https://www.theregister.com/2025/12/10/palantir_navy_448_million_contract/) | | ICE | ImmigrationOS (justification J&A-25-0092) | [SAM.gov](https://sam.gov/opp/f71acee6010c423db4902446a59a690c/view) | - **$3.32B**: US sales, 2025 (government $1.86B, companies $1.47B) (source: [Palantir 10-K 2025](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000011/pltr-20251231.htm)) - **$1.2B**: Sales outside the US, 2025 (source: [Palantir 10-K 2025](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000011/pltr-20251231.htm)) - **×10**: Karp's goal for US sales, "in my view, next five years" (source: [Q2 2025 call, 33:15](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0dYGskaeN-g)) [Watch this part on YouTube (1:43)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBobEXakaP0&t=103) ## What is Palantir's P/E ratio? *Stop one: what the price counts on* 148 at $186.03 a share: the price equals 148 years of its last twelve months of profit, [$3.02 billion](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000041/pltr-20260630.htm). That's almost six times an S&P 500 index fund. Palantir pays almost no tax; with a normal 21% tax the P/E is about 184. Snowflake, another data software company, sells almost as much, and the market values Palantir at about four times Snowflake. Palantir grew 93% last quarter, Snowflake 35%. Palantir makes money. Snowflake loses it. *Years of profit in the price, Oct 16, 2026* | Years of profit in the price (P/E) | P/E | Source | | --- | --- | --- | | S&P 500 index fund | 26 | [FactSet](https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_101626.pdf) | | Microsoft | 29 | [Microsoft 10-K](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526323660/msft-20260630.htm) | | Palantir, as reported | 148 | [Palantir 10-Q](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000041/pltr-20260630.htm) | | Palantir with a normal 21% tax | 184 | [Palantir 10-Q](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000041/pltr-20260630.htm) | - **4.1×**: Palantir's market value against Snowflake's ($447B vs $108B) (source: [Napkin math on the 10-Q covers](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1640147/000164014726000037/snow-20260731.htm)) - **$6.16B vs $5.44B**: Sales, last 12 months: Palantir vs Snowflake (source: [Palantir 10-Q](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000041/pltr-20260630.htm) · [Snowflake 10-Q](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1640147/000164014726000037/snow-20260731.htm)) - **+93% vs +35%**: Growth last quarter: Palantir vs Snowflake (source: [Palantir Q2 2026 release](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000039/a2026q2ex991pressrelease.htm) · [Snowflake 10-Q](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1640147/000164014726000037/snow-20260731.htm)) P/E = market value ÷ net profit, last twelve months to Jun 30, 2026. With a normal tax: $447B ÷ ($3.07B profit before tax × 0.79) ≈ 184 (napkin math). From here on, Gus counts with the normal tax. [Watch this part on YouTube (2:38)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBobEXakaP0&t=158) ## Does Palantir pay federal income tax? *The tax day* Not yet. On about $1.6 billion of US profit before tax in 2025, its [current federal income tax was zero](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000011/pltr-20251231.htm). It's legal: deductions for paying staff in stock, and old losses. The old losses run out around 2027 as profit grows; the stock deductions can keep tax lower for years, if the stock stays high. Palantir also writes there's a ["reasonable possibility"](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000041/pltr-20260630.htm) it will book those saved-up deductions as profit. The quarter it does, profit jumps once on paper and no new cash comes in. Gus calls it the tax day. When ServiceNow, Workday, Palo Alto Networks and Tesla had theirs, profit jumped and none of the four stocks went up. **Palantir 10-Q, Q2 2026** > the Company has maintained a full valuation allowance on its U.S. and U.K. deferred tax assets as of June 30, 2026. However, given the Company's recent earnings and anticipated future earnings, there is a reasonable possibility that it will have sufficient positive evidence in the future to release all or a portion of the valuation allowance Source: [Quarterly report](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000041/pltr-20260630.htm) · the same sentence has stood since Q2 2024 *Four companies that had a tax day* | The tax day | Profit before tax | Net profit that quarter | Stock, day after the report | Source | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ServiceNow, Q2 2023 | $174M | $1,044M | −3.0% | [ServiceNow 10-Q](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1373715/000137371523000325/now-20230630.htm) | | Workday, Q4 FY2024 | $138M | $1,188M | −4.0% | [Workday 10-K](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1327811/000132781124000044/wday-20240131.htm) | | Palo Alto Networks, Q2 FY2024 | $136M | $1,747M | −28.4% | [Palo Alto 10-Q](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1327567/000132756724000005/panw-20240131.htm) | | Tesla, Q4 2023 | $2,191M | $7,928M | −12.1% | [Tesla 10-K](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000162828024002390/tsla-20231231.htm) | Stock moves: closes the day before and the day after each report (Yahoo Finance, napkin math). Profit jumped. None of the four stocks went up. [Watch this part on YouTube (2:54)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBobEXakaP0&t=174) ## What has to be true for Palantir stock to beat an index fund? *What has to be true* In 2030, profit per share times the P/E has to beat about $280: what $186 grows to by the end of 2030 in an index fund at its [long-run 10% a year](https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/histretSP.html). Today a share is about $1.01 of profit (with a normal tax) times a P/E of 184: $186. At Karp's goal, $33 billion in US sales plus about $5 billion abroad, Palantir would earn about $14 billion for today's shares, $5.83 a share. At 32 years of profit, like Microsoft today, that's $186 again: hitting the goal only gets your money back. Reaching $280 takes a P/E of about 48, so buyers in 2030 still have to see years of fast growth ahead. *Price per share = profit per share × P/E* | Price per share = profit × P/E | Profit per share | P/E | Price per share | Source | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Today (normal tax) | ≈ $1.01 | 184 | $186 | [Palantir 10-Q](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000041/pltr-20260630.htm) | | 2030 at Karp's goal, P/E like Microsoft today | $5.83 | 32 | $186 | [Microsoft 10-K](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526323660/msft-20260630.htm) | | 2030, to keep up with an index fund | $5.83 | 48 | ≈ $280 | [Damodaran, NYU](https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/histretSP.html) | | 2030 at AppLovin's P/E (grew 53% last quarter) | $5.83 | 20 | ≈ $117 | [AppLovin 10-Q](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1751008/000175100826000059/app-20260630.htm) | | 2030 at Fortinet's P/E (grew 26% last quarter) | $5.83 | 59 | ≈ $345 | [Fortinet 10-Q](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1262039/000126203926000021/ftnt-20260630.htm) | - **$38B**: Sales in 2030 at the goal: US $33B + abroad ≈ $5B (a third a year, like now) (source: [Napkin math on the 10-K](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000011/pltr-20251231.htm)) - **39¢**: Profit per dollar of sales today, with a normal tax (source: [Napkin math on the 10-Q](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000041/pltr-20260630.htm)) - **≈ $14B**: Profit at the goal for today's shares, after new shares for staff ($15B before) (source: [Napkin math: split over 2.57B diluted shares](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000041/pltr-20260630.htm)) - **$5.83**: Profit per share at the goal (≈ $14B ÷ 2.4B shares) (source: Napkin math) ### Two famous cases, both picked after the fact | Bought at a P/E over 200 | Profit per share after | The stock | P/E later | Source | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Cisco, Mar 27, 2000 (top of the dot-com bubble) | ×7 to 8 | Fell first; back at the 2000 top after almost 26 years | ≈ 31 | [Cisco 10-K](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/858877/000085887726000132/csco-20260725.htm) | | Nvidia, May 2023 | ×41 | ×5.6 to Oct 2026 | 27 | [Nvidia 10-K](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000021/R3.htm) | A P/E this high comes down when the profit grows into the price, when the price falls, or both. Cisco's profit grew into the price and the stock still took almost 26 years to get back. Nvidia's profit grew far more than the price counted on, and even there the P/E fell, to 27. Prices: Yahoo Finance. [Watch this part on YouTube (4:17)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBobEXakaP0&t=257) ## Can Palantir reach Karp's 10x goal? *Stop two: can Karp deliver it?* His record is a good sign. It isn't proof. In 2022 Karp aimed for [$4.5 billion in sales in 2025](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P406aWBxz0w); Palantir landed at $4.475 billion, and it beat its forecast 18 quarters in a row. That goal was about 2.4 times in three years. This one is ten times in five. Contracts customers can't cancel cover about [ten months of sales](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000041/pltr-20260630.htm), low but normal for contracts like these, and everything locked in today is about an eighth of one year's sales in 2030 at the goal. - **$4.475B**: Sales in 2025, against Karp's 2022 goal of $4.5B (source: [Palantir 10-K 2025](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000011/pltr-20251231.htm)) - **18**: Quarters in a row above its forecast (Q1 2022 to Q2 2026) (source: Gus's count of Palantir's earnings releases) - **9.6 mo**: Of sales locked in: contracts customers can't cancel, work not delivered yet ($4.9B) (source: [Palantir 10-Q, note 3; napkin math](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000041/pltr-20260630.htm)) - **≈ 1/8**: Of one year's sales in 2030 at the goal that is locked in today. In 2022: about 1/4 of the goal year (source: [10-Q Q2 2026](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000041/pltr-20260630.htm) · [10-Q Q2 2022](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165522000016/pltr-20220630.htm)) *Months of sales locked in, software companies* | Months of sales locked in (RPO) | Contracts | Months | Source | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Salesforce | Can't be cancelled | 18.1 | [10-Q](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1108524/000110852426000190/crm-20260731.htm) | | ServiceNow | Can't be cancelled | 23.6 | [10-Q](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1373715/000137371526000076/now-20260630.htm) | | Workday | Can't be cancelled | 32.4 | [10-Q](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1327811/000132781126000044/wday-20260731.htm) | | Adobe | By the year, or cancellable | 10.2 | [10-Q](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/796343/000079634326000156/adbe-20260828.htm) | | Datadog | By the year, or cancellable | 10.5 | [10-Q](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1561550/000162828026054458/ddog-20260630.htm) | | C3.ai | By the year, or cancellable | 10.3 | [10-Q](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1577526/000157752626000126/ai-20260731.htm) | | **Palantir** | Many cancellable on less than a year's notice | **9.6** | [10-Q](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000041/pltr-20260630.htm) | **Alex Karp, Q2 2022 earnings call, Aug 8, 2022, 31:47** > So I am driving the company to get to $4.5 billion in 2025. Source: [Palantir's webcast](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P406aWBxz0w) **Why Palantir's number is short** > the Company allows many of its customers to terminate contracts for convenience prior to the end of the stated term with less than twelve months' notice Source: [Palantir 10-Q, Q2 2026, note 3](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000041/pltr-20260630.htm). And from the 10-K: "the U.S. federal government is prohibited from exercising contract options more than one year in advance." **The biggest customers stay** > an average of fifteen years as of June 30, 2026 Source: [Palantir 10-Q, Q2 2026](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000041/pltr-20260630.htm), on its top three customers [Watch this part on YouTube (7:46)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBobEXakaP0&t=466) ## Is Palantir software or consulting? *People or software* On profit per dollar, the numbers side with software. Michael Burry calls Palantir ["a consultant riding a bubble of AI FOMO demand."](https://x.com/michaeljburry/status/2095378501062775230) He has a point for about a quarter of it: of what the US government bought from Palantir in 2025, about a quarter was paid as hours. Booz Allen, a government consultant, keeps 7 cents of profit per dollar of sales; Palantir keeps 39. At 7 cents, Palantir's P/E at the goal would be about 180. Karp's goal is ["10x revenue and have 3,600 people"](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/04/palantir-pltr-q2-earnings-2025.html), which means $10.6 million of sales per person in 2030. Today it's $1.4 million. - **23%**: Of US government purchases from Palantir in FY2025 paid as hours and engineering (software 43%) (source: [USAspending; napkin math](https://www.usaspending.gov/recipient/11a97fdb-cb3b-16d2-aa67-a0f7b265b4ae-C/all)) - **7¢ vs 39¢**: Profit per dollar of sales, normal tax: Booz Allen vs Palantir (source: [Booz Allen 10-Q](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1443646/000162828026049495/bah-20260630.htm) · [Palantir 10-Q](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000041/pltr-20260630.htm)) - **≈ 180**: Palantir's P/E at the goal if it kept Booz Allen's 7 cents (source: Napkin math) - **$1.4M → $10.6M**: Sales per person, today and at the goal with 3,600 people (source: [Napkin math on the 10-Q](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000041/pltr-20260630.htm)) *Palantir's staff and sales per person* | Full-time staff | Date | People | Source | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2022 (sales per person $0.5M) | Dec 31, 2022 | 3,838 | [10-K 2022](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165523000011/pltr-20221231.htm) | | 2024 | Dec 31, 2024 | 3,936 | [10-K 2024](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165525000022/pltr-20241231.htm) | | 2025 (sales +56%, staff +13%) | Dec 31, 2025 | 4,429 | [10-K 2025](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000011/pltr-20251231.htm) | | Latest (sales per person $1.4M) | Jun 30, 2026 | 4,401 | [10-Q Q2 2026](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000041/pltr-20260630.htm) | | Karp's goal at 10x | | 3,600 | [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/04/palantir-pltr-q2-earnings-2025.html) | **Alex Karp to CNBC, Aug 4, 2025** > This is a crazy, efficient revolution. The goal is to get 10x revenue and have 3,600 people. We have now 4,100. Source: [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/04/palantir-pltr-q2-earnings-2025.html) (the quote is in CNBC's article; the clip paraphrases it) · same words in [Fortune](https://fortune.com/2025/08/05/palantir-second-quarter-earnings-crazy-efficient-revolution-ai-job-cuts-alex-karp/). Five months later: 4,429 people. **Michael Burry, Substack, Feb 19, 2026** > In 9 of the last 12 quarters, AR grew faster than revenue Source: [Palantir: An Accounting](https://michaeljburry.substack.com/p/palantir-an-accounting) · Gus's count on Palantir's filings, Q1 2023 to Q4 2025: 9 of 12. It checks out. - **≈ 45 → 73**: Days from sale to cash: 2021 against the last four quarters. Their terms: 30 to 60 (source: [Napkin math on the 10-K and 10-Qs](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000041/pltr-20260630.htm)) - **$2.1B vs $1.9B**: Cash from the business vs reported profit, first half 2026. Staff paid in shares ($0.47B) is why the cash is higher (source: [Palantir 10-Q, cash flow](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000041/pltr-20260630.htm)) - **$124M**: Average yearly bill of the 20 biggest customers; $75M a year earlier (source: [Palantir Q2 2026 release](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000039/a2026q2ex991pressrelease.htm)) In the Pentagon's targeting software, where Palantir is almost alone, it has won every head-to-head contest on record ([DefenseScoop](https://defensescoop.com/2026/09/01/army-titan-platform-production-awards-palantir-anduril/)). In court this year, the [ruling](https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.nysd.652097/gov.uscourts.nysd.652097.96.0.pdf) (SDNY, Mar 5, 2026) quotes Palantir's own witness: a software company, and a consulting company. Gus counts the stock pay as new shares in stop one. [Watch this part on YouTube (9:18)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBobEXakaP0&t=558) ## Can Palantir grow outside the US? *Stop three: abroad* At this year's pace, enough for about $5 billion by 2030. More than that, Gus wouldn't count on. Sales outside the US were $1.2 billion in 2025, about a quarter of the total, and are up 35% so far in 2026. Britain keeps buying, from $173 million in 2021 to $427 million in 2025. The trust is going the other way: France's prime minister said its domestic intelligence agency [will replace Palantir](https://www.info.gouv.fr/actualite/accelerer-l-ia-dans-l-etat-et-au-service-des-francais) with the French ChapsVision, and Palantir has warned in every report since 2020 about its ["perceived relationship with the U.S. government."](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000011/pltr-20251231.htm) - **$1.2B → ≈ $5B**: Sales abroad, 2025 to 2030 in Gus's math: about ×4, a third a year (source: [Palantir 10-K 2025; napkin math](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000011/pltr-20251231.htm)) - **+20% → +35%**: Growth abroad: 2025, then the first half of 2026 (source: [Palantir 10-K, 10-Q; napkin math](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000041/pltr-20260630.htm)) - **57%**: Growth a year it would take for abroad to stay a quarter of sales (source: Napkin math) - **58%**: Of European NATO members' arms imports came from the US, 2021 to 2025 (source: [SIPRI, 2026](https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2026-03/fs_2603_at_2025.pdf)) ### The money | Who | What | Source | | --- | --- | --- | | Europe and Canada | Defense spending after inflation: $480B in 2024, $634B in 2026 | [NATO](https://www.nato.int/content/dam/nato/webready/documents/finance/def-exp-2026-en.pdf) | | NATO | Bought Palantir's Maven Smart System in "only six months" (2025); the 2026 summit committed to "adopting powerful AI models" | [NATO SHAPE](https://shape.nato.int/news-releases/nato-acquires-aienabled-warfighting-system-) | | Britain | Over a third of Palantir's sales abroad. Defence ministry, Dec 2025: £240.6M over three years, about £80M a year, no tender | [Find a Tender](https://www.find-tender.service.gov.uk/Notice/006088-2026) | | The EU | SAFE defense loans: at most 35% of a weapon's parts' cost from outside the EU. Software isn't named | [EUR-Lex](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/HTML/?uri=CELEX:32025R1106) | ### The trust - **Mar 31, 2026**: Trump, about the Strait of Hormuz, to countries like Britain: "the U.S.A. won't be there to help you anymore." (source: [Truth Social](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/116323481956698353)) - **May 13, 2026**: German press reports that Germany's domestic intelligence agency picked ChapsVision, a French rival of Palantir. (source: [NDR and WDR via tagesschau](https://www.tagesschau.de/investigativ/ndr-wdr/verfassungsschutz-palantir-100.html)) - **Jun 12, 2026**: Washington orders Anthropic to cut off every foreign national from its two most advanced models. (source: [Anthropic on X](https://x.com/AnthropicAI/status/2065597531644743999)) - **Jun 16, 2026**: France's prime minister: the domestic intelligence agency will replace Palantir with ChapsVision. Palantir says the contract is still in force. (source: [info.gouv.fr](https://www.info.gouv.fr/actualite/accelerer-l-ia-dans-l-etat-et-au-service-des-francais)) **Sébastien Lecornu, France's prime minister, Jun 16, 2026** > We cannot depend on the goodwill of certain partners capable, as we have seen in recent days, of cutting off access to Anthropic's models. Source: [Video on X](https://x.com/SebLecornu/status/2066757435948208622), 5:21 (Gus's translation from French) · Palantir's reply via [Euronews](https://fr.euronews.com/business/2026/06/16/la-dgsi-delaisse-palantir-au-profit-dune-entreprise-francaise-annonce-sebastien-lecornu) **Ursula von der Leyen, Mar 19, 2025** > We must buy more European. Source: [European Commission](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_25_793) **Alex Karp, Q4 2025 earnings call, Feb 2, 2026, 33:54 and 35:30** > we really don't have the bandwidth to do anything that's difficult outside of America ... the issue ends up being their issue more than our issue Source: [Palantir's webcast](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qQYAHS0oaiY) [Watch this part on YouTube (13:01)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBobEXakaP0&t=781) ## How much of Palantir's growth comes from the US government? *Can America get there?* About half of Palantir's US sales come from the government, and in Gus's math nine tenths of the growth to 2030 has to come from America. From about $6.6 billion of US sales this year to Karp's $33 billion takes about 50% a year for four years. Right now US sales are up 110% in the first half, and the government half grew 90% last quarter. At the goal, if today's split holds, the government buys about $17 billion a year from Palantir, about what [Leidos](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1336920/000133692026000030/ldos-20260102.htm), the government's biggest IT contractor, sells to everyone. In 2023 the government half grew 11.5%. - **≈ 50%**: A year, 2026 to 2030, that US sales need for Karp's goal (source: [Napkin math on Palantir's forecast](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000039/a2026q2ex991pressrelease.htm)) - **+110%**: US sales, first half of 2026 ($1.36B → $2.86B) (source: [Palantir 10-Q; napkin math](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000041/pltr-20260630.htm)) - **+90%**: US government half, last quarter (source: [Palantir Q2 2026 release](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000039/a2026q2ex991pressrelease.htm)) - **2¢ → 10¢**: Palantir's share of each dollar Washington spends on IT, today and at the goal (source: [OMB, Pentagon IT budget; napkin math](https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/ap_5_tables_4-6_fy2027.xlsx)) *Committed to Palantir per year, by president* | Committed to Palantir per year (contract money) | Per year | | --- | --- | | Obama | ≈ $56M | | Trump, first term | ≈ $182M | | Biden | ≈ $405M | | Trump, second term so far | ≈ $1.6B | Source: [USAspending, Palantir as recipient; napkin math](https://www.usaspending.gov/recipient/11a97fdb-cb3b-16d2-aa67-a0f7b265b4ae-C/all) ### What's real - Every president has committed more to Palantir per year than the one before. Both parties - The government half grew 90% last quarter - 82% of Palantir's federal contract dollars had one bid, or no competition at all - Karp, in May: "We are at our limit doing 100 percent this year" ### What can go wrong - About two thirds of the money is defense, so it rides on the defense budget - The Pentagon asked for $2.3B for Maven and a second program. Congress hasn't passed it; until Dec 11 the Pentagon runs on last year's budget - Headline numbers are ceilings: the Army deal says up to $10B, committed so far $1.2B - Palantir's annual report: spending "may not be sustained at the levels" of last year - Civilian orders follow who's in power: Health and Human Services ordered less under Trump so far, ICE more Sources: [USAspending (Army agreement)](https://www.usaspending.gov/award/CONT_IDV_W519TC25D0039_9700) · [FY2027 request via Greenberg Traurig](https://www.gtlaw.com/en/insights/2026/5/understanding-the-presidents-fy-2027-budget-request-for-the-department-of-war) · [Breaking Defense on the stopgap](https://breakingdefense.com/2026/10/cant-start-wont-start-over-150-new-military-programs-face-delay-under-a-cr/) · [Palantir 10-K 2025](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000011/pltr-20251231.htm) · [Q1 2026 call](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Aghjshi3U8) · [Washington Technology Top 100](https://www.washingtontechnology.com/rankings/top-100/2026/). The 82% leaves out secret contracts. [Watch this part on YouTube (17:03)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBobEXakaP0&t=1023) ## Will US companies keep buying Palantir? *Now companies* Today they buy fast: Palantir's US commercial sales grew 149% last quarter, and deal value still to come from them is up 124%. At the goal, if the split holds, US companies buy about $16 billion a year from Palantir, more than Snowflake and [Databricks](https://www.databricks.com/company/newsroom/press-releases/databricks-grows-80-yoy-surpasses-7b-revenue-run-rate-scales) sell together worldwide ($12.4 billion). Against it: [Gartner](https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2026-09-29-gartner-predicts-70-percent-of-enterprises-will-abandon-agentic-ai-built-by-vendor-forward-deployed-engineering-by-2028) predicts 70% of companies will abandon AI agents built by vendors' forward-deployed engineers by 2028. Gartner doesn't name Palantir; Palantir's CTO says "only Palantir has FDEs." And in [McKinsey's survey](https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/quantumblack/our%20insights/the%20state%20of%20ai/the-state-of-ai-in-2026-on-the-road-to-roi.pdf) only 37% of companies see AI in their operating profit. - **+149%**: US commercial sales, last quarter. Deal value still to come: +124% (not all binding) (source: [Palantir Q2 2026 release](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000039/a2026q2ex991pressrelease.htm)) - **$16B vs $12.4B**: US companies at the goal vs Snowflake + Databricks today, worldwide (source: [Snowflake 10-Q](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1640147/000164014726000037/snow-20260731.htm) · [Databricks](https://www.databricks.com/company/newsroom/press-releases/databricks-grows-80-yoy-surpasses-7b-revenue-run-rate-scales)) - **5¢ to 20¢**: Of each dollar US companies are forecast to spend on AI software (2028) that the goal needs (source: [IDC and others; napkin math](https://www.idc.com/resource-center/press-releases/worldwide-spending-on-artificial-intelligence-forecast-to-reach-632-billion-in-2028-according-to-a-new-idc-spending-guide/)) - **+24%**: Palantir's customer count, down from +43% (source: [Palantir 10-Q, earnings releases](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000041/pltr-20260630.htm)) **Gartner, Sep 29, 2026** > 70% of enterprises will abandon agentic AI built by vendor forward-deployed engineering (FDE) Source: [Gartner press release](https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2026-09-29-gartner-predicts-70-percent-of-enterprises-will-abandon-agentic-ai-built-by-vendor-forward-deployed-engineering-by-2028) · Gartner doesn't name Palantir **Shyam Sankar, Palantir's CTO, Q2 2026 earnings call, 11:10** > Remember, only Palantir has FDEs. Source: [Palantir's webcast](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yTHNjVWnoWo) [Watch this part on YouTube (19:54)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBobEXakaP0&t=1194) ## How many headlines are written about Palantir stock? *The headline factory* More than 4,400 Palantir headlines from finance sites between Jan 1, 2025 and Oct 18, 2026, the count shown in the video. The Motley Fool alone published 1,344, about two a day. Palantir reported seven times in that window, so that's about 190 Motley Fool articles for every report. 300 of those 1,344 have the word "buy" in the headline. | Site | Headlines | | --- | --- | | The Motley Fool | 1,344 | | Seeking Alpha | 1,216 | | Benzinga | 984 | | 24/7 Wall St. | 384 | | Finbold | 190 | | Insider Monkey 167, MarketBeat 78, Barchart 40, Zacks 7, InvestorPlace 2 | 294 | **Source:** Gus's count of the sites' archives, a floor. The bars show the latest count, Jan 1, 2025 to Oct 18, 2026; the numbers above are the count from the video. - **≈ 190**: Motley Fool Palantir headlines per Palantir report (seven reports in the window) (source: Gus's count; napkin math) - **26**: Headlines with the words "the next Palantir". Ten from the Motley Fool (source: Gus's count) - **−58% vs +41%**: The typical "next Palantir" since its headline, against Palantir itself over the same days (source: Gus's count; prices) - **13 of 19**: Finbold's AI price calls for dates that passed where just guessing the price on the day of the article was closer (source: Gus's count of Finbold's articles) Three of Finbold's AI calls: [Dec 31, 2025](https://finbold.com/ai-predicts-palantir-pltr-stock-price-for-december-31-2025/) · [end of Q2 2026](https://finbold.com/ai-predicts-palantir-stock-price-for-end-of-q2-2026/) · [Sep 30, 2026](https://finbold.com/machine-learning-algorithm-sets-palantir-stock-price-for-september-30-2026/). Finbold has published more than 30. [Watch this part on YouTube (21:36)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBobEXakaP0&t=1296) ## Is it too late to buy Palantir stock? *Too late?* At $186.03, the price already pays for Karp's goal: hitting it by 2030 only gets your money back. The Motley Fool has asked whether it's too late 19 times since January 2025. At $78.98 the answer was ["stay away."](https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/01/26/is-it-too-late-to-buy-palantir-stock-in-2025/) At $209.05: ["just getting started."](https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/10/10/is-it-too-late-to-buy-palantir-stock/) When the stock fell from its 2025 high of $207.18 to $107.27, the headlines in the table below said buy all the way down. Not one of them said wait. *What the headlines said, and the price that day* | Date | Site | Last close | What it said | Source | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Jan 26, 2025 | Motley Fool | $78.98 | "investors should stay away, at least for now" | [fool.com](https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/01/26/is-it-too-late-to-buy-palantir-stock-in-2025/) | | Nov 3, 2025 | Seeking Alpha | $207.18 | "I Regret Moving To The Sidelines, And I'm Diving Back In" (the highest close of 2025) | [seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4837088-palantir-i-regret-moving-to-the-sidelines-and-im-diving-back-in-upgrade) | | Nov 14, 2025 | Motley Fool | $174.01 | "dips like this are golden opportunities to invest" | Motley Fool | | Jan 4, 2026 | Motley Fool | $167.86 | "It won't be down for long." | Motley Fool | | May 26, 2026 | Barchart | $136.60 | "Don't Miss This Chance to Buy the Dip" | [barchart.com](https://www.barchart.com/story/news/2134228/palantir-stock-is-down-34-from-its-highs-dont-miss-this-chance-to-buy-the-dip) | | Jun 24, 2026 | Barchart | $113.50 | "Why It's Time to Buy the Dip" (same writer, mostly the same text) | [barchart.com](https://www.barchart.com/story/news/2634827/palantir-stock-crashes-to-a-52-week-low-why-its-time-to-buy-the-dip) | | Jun 25, 2026 | | $107.27 | The bottom | | | Oct 10, 2026 | Motley Fool | $209.05 | "This company is just getting started." | [fool.com](https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/10/10/is-it-too-late-to-buy-palantir-stock/) | **Motley Fool, Jan 13, 2026, at $178.96** > Palantir Is Poised to Mint 10,000 Millionaires ... Microsoft minted 10,000 millionaires by the year 2000, and Palantir has the same potential. Source: [fool.com](https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/01/13/palantir-is-poised-to-mint-10000-millionaires-will/) · By the article's number Microsoft went up more than a hundred times. A hundred times from that day makes Palantir worth about $43 trillion (napkin math). Today: $447 billion. **Benzinga, Mar 20, 2026** > Palantir May Control The $50 Trillion Physical AI System ... no single company owns physical AI Source: Headline and a line from the same article **Motley Fool, Jul 6, 2026** > President Trump Sells Palantir Stock and Buys an AI Stock Up 2,100% Since 2023 ... Investors should consider buying a small position in Western Digital. Source: A sell headline that ends in a buy **Motley Fool, Feb 20, 2025** > Palantir's co-founder and CEO Peter Thiel Source: The CEO is Alex Karp ([Palantir 10-K](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000011/pltr-20251231.htm)) Prices: the last close before each piece. The one who bought on Seeking Alpha's Nov 3 headline is still down 10% at $186.03 (napkin math). [Watch this part on YouTube (22:49)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBobEXakaP0&t=1369) ## Who checks what finance sites say about stocks? *Who checks any of this?* To say buy, a broker needs a license. A website needs a headline. For brokers, [FINRA Rule 2210](https://www.finra.org/rules-guidance/rulebooks/finra-rules/2210) says everything must be "fair and balanced," with no predictions of performance unless they show the basis and the risks. A website counts as a publisher, and the Supreme Court exempts publishers for ["disinterested commentary and analysis."](https://www.law.cornell.edu/supremecourt/text/472/181) Disinterested means no stake in it. Under the Motley Fool's Palantir articles: "The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Palantir Technologies." **24/7 Wall St., Jun 22, 2026** > Palantir Will Join The $3 Trillion Club on This Date Source: [247wallst.com](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/06/22/palantir-will-join-the-3-trillion-club-on-this-date/) **Lowe v. SEC, Supreme Court, 1985** > disinterested commentary and analysis Source: [The ruling](https://www.law.cornell.edu/supremecourt/text/472/181) · the [Motley Fool's disclosure policy](https://www.fool.com/legal/fool-disclosure/) **Google's guidelines for rating search results** > There is no evidence that the author has financial expertise. Source: [Search Quality Rater Guidelines](https://static.googleusercontent.com/media/guidelines.raterhub.com/en//searchqualityevaluatorguidelines.pdf), p. 66: a page with stock advice like that gets a "Low" **Motley Fool ad on Google, Oct 2026** > Where to Put $1,000 Right Now. This could be like Netflix in October 2004 Source: Google Ads Transparency Center, shown in the US - **"Millions"**: Of prospective members a month reached by the Motley Fool's free articles, as the Fool puts it (source: careers.fool.com) - **17M**: Monthly visitors, Seeking Alpha's media kit (2021) (source: Seeking Alpha media kit) - **12M**: Monthly unique visitors, Benzinga's advertising page (source: Benzinga (undated, secondary)) None of these headlines checks the things on the list further down. They come after the price moves. [Watch this part on YouTube (25:20)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBobEXakaP0&t=1520) ## What moves Palantir stock? *What moves the stock?* Report days and index money, more than deals. The day after the Army announced its [up-to-$10 billion deal](https://defensescoop.com/2025/07/31/army-palantir-software-enterprise-agreement-10-billion/), the stock fell 2.6%; the whole market fell 1.6% that day. The Monday after [S&P Dow Jones Indices](https://press.spglobal.com/2024-09-06-Palantir-Technologies,-Dell-Technologies,-and-Erie-Indemnity-Set-to-Join-S-P-500-Others-to-Join-S-P-MidCap-400-and-S-P-SmallCap-600) said it was adding Palantir to the S&P 500, it rose 14%. Every one of the last eight report days moved it at least 6%. Of every $100 into an S&P 500 fund, [69 cents](https://www.ssga.com/us/en/intermediary/library-content/products/fund-data/etfs/us/holdings-daily-us-en-spy.xlsx) buys Palantir, at whatever the price is. *What moved Palantir stock* | Event | Date | Palantir | S&P 500 | Source | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Day after the Army's up-to-$10B deal | Aug 1, 2025 | −2.6% | −1.6% | [DefenseScoop](https://defensescoop.com/2025/07/31/army-palantir-software-enterprise-agreement-10-billion/) | | Monday after the S&P 500 news | Sep 9, 2024 | +14.1% | +1.2% | [S&P DJI](https://press.spglobal.com/2024-09-06-Palantir-Technologies,-Dell-Technologies,-and-Erie-Indemnity-Set-to-Join-S-P-500-Others-to-Join-S-P-MidCap-400-and-S-P-SmallCap-600) | | The last eight report days | 2024–2026 | at least ±6.9% each, 14.8% on average | | [Yahoo Finance](https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/PLTR) | ### The fall, and the funds that bet on the swings *$10,000 put in at the 2025 high* | $10,000 put in at the Nov 3, 2025 high | At the bottom, Jun 25, 2026 | Oct 16, 2026 | Source | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Palantir stock | ≈ $5,200 (−48%) | ≈ $9,000 | [Yahoo Finance](https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/PLTR) | | PTIR, the biggest fund that doubles it each day | −79% | ≈ $5,300 | [PTIR prospectus](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1689873/000149315225019508/form497k.htm) | | PLTZ, a fund that doubles against it each day | | ≈ $3,700 | [PLTZ prospectus](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1924868/000199937126019064/pltz-497k_082826.htm) | From the Nov 3, 2025 high of $207.18 the stock fell 48% to $107.27, then rose 73% to $186.03. Sales grew every quarter, the whole way. Profit grew, so the fall was the P/E: money and opinions. Doubling every day loses in a stock that swings this much. Fund returns with dividends reinvested (Yahoo Finance adjusted closes, napkin math). The S&P 500 fund holds stocks by index weight "regardless of the current or projected performance" ([SPY prospectus, Jan 2026](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/884394/000119312526022775/d77353d497.htm)). [Watch this part on YouTube (26:52)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBobEXakaP0&t=1612) ## Are Palantir insiders selling? *The Form 4s* Yes, mostly on plans set in advance. Right after Palantir joined the S&P 500, Rivendell 7, Peter Thiel's company, sold about [$1.05 billion](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1211060/000132165524000181/wk-form4_1727395357.xml) of stock on a plan set in May 2024, before the index news. Karp has sold about $3.49 billion since the 2020 listing, at about $35 a share, a fifth of today's price. In the last year, nine tenths of his sales were automatic, to pay the tax on new shares, and he still owns about $11 billion worth. Nobody now running Palantir or on its board has bought a share on the market since the listing. - **$1.05B**: Sold by Rivendell 7 (Peter Thiel, chairman), Sep 24 to Oct 1, 2024, on a plan from May 15, 2024 (source: [Form 4, Sep 2024](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1211060/000132165524000181/wk-form4_1727395357.xml) · [Form 4, Oct 2024](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1211060/000132165524000183/wk-form4_1727825968.xml)) - **$3.49B**: Sold by Karp since the listing, at $34.52 a share on average (source: [Gus's count of the Form 4 filings](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000182395126000009/)) - **90%**: Of Karp's sales in the last 12 months were automatic tax sales ($244M of $272M) (source: [Form 4 filings; napkin math](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000182395125000002/)) - **0**: Shares bought on the market by today's management and board since the listing (source: Gus's count of 522 Form 4 filings) Karp still owns 6.43M Class A and 51.43M Class B shares, about $11B at $186.03 ([proxy 2026](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000019/pltr-20260423.htm), napkin math). His shares came as pay, mostly as options. Gus's read: insider selling looks scary until you read the Form 4. [Watch this part on YouTube (27:49)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBobEXakaP0&t=1669) ## Would Gus buy Palantir stock? *What has to be true for you* Gus's math says no: at this price it needs more than Karp's goal. The [Hype Fund](https://shortcircuitcreations.com/fund) buys what the headlines shout about, so it buys Palantir anyway. That's the experiment. The business has almost no holes. The price is the hole. If Burry is right, Palantir's spot in the fund loses about three quarters. *What has to be true for you to make money* | What has to be true for you to make money | Where it stands | | --- | --- | | **1.** In 2030, profit per share times the P/E beats about $280 | At Karp's goal that takes a P/E of 48. 32 only gives you your $186 back | | **2.** The software does the work | Sales per person almost eight times higher: $1.4M today, $10.6M at the goal | | **3.** Abroad keeps growing about a third a year | +35% so far in 2026 | | **4.** In America, government and companies both keep about 50% a year, four years in a row | US sales +110% in the first half of 2026. In 2023 the government grew 11.5% | | **5.** You can watch your money halve, and not sell | It halved once from Nov 2025 to Jun 2026, while sales were still growing | - **≈ 50%**: The number to watch: American sales growth a year, until 2030 (source: [Napkin math on Palantir's forecast](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000039/a2026q2ex991pressrelease.htm)) - **×2.2**: How much faster US sales grow today than the goal needs (source: [Napkin math on the 10-Q](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000041/pltr-20260630.htm)) - **−73%**: Palantir's spot in the fund if it falls to Burry's $50 (source: [Napkin math](https://michaeljburry.substack.com/p/trade-alert-friday-april-10-2026)) The Hype Fund at the open on Oct 21: Micron −15% since it joined, SpaceX +5%, the same money in the S&P 500 on the same days about flat. Palantir joins on Oct 21, 2026 at $194.20. Every trade is on [the Hype Fund page](https://shortcircuitcreations.com/fund). [Watch this part on YouTube (29:57)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBobEXakaP0&t=1797) ## Is Palantir on track for Karp's 2030 goal? *The scorecard* After Q3 2026: on track at home, missed abroad. US sales grew 119%, far above the goal's 50%. International sales grew 26%, below the goal's 33%. Every report until 2030 fills in one column of what has to be true for the stock to pay off at $186: green on track, red missed. | What has to be true | Goal | Episode Oct '26 | Since | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | America keeps growing | US sales, about +50% a year | +110% | 2026 Q3 +119% | | Abroad keeps growing | international sales, about +33% a year | +35% | 2026 Q3 +26% | | The software does the work | sales per person, $1.4M → $10.6M | $1.4M | $1.4M today | | The 2030 math | profit per share × P/E beats $280 | P/E 148 | settled in 2030 | | Gus didn't sell | The Hype Fund still holds it. Biggest fall since it bought: −20% | $194.20 | 2026 Q3 held | From Palantir's quarterly reports to the SEC: US and international sales growth against the same quarter a year earlier. Sales per person: yearly sales divided by employees, napkin math. Gus's trades are on [the Hype Fund page](https://shortcircuitcreations.com/fund). [Every update](https://shortcircuitcreations.com/scorecard/palantir/) ## When is Palantir's next earnings report? *Dates we check* The Q4 report comes in February; Palantir announces the date a few weeks before. The [Q3 report](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000045/a2026q3ex991pressrelease.htm) came on November 2, and report days move the stock most. The next day America voted for the Congress that writes the budget. On December 11 the government's [stopgap budget](https://breakingdefense.com/2026/10/cant-start-wont-start-over-150-new-military-programs-face-delay-under-a-cr/) runs out, and in June 2027 Burry's bet against it runs out. Any report can bring the tax day, the quarter Palantir books its saved-up tax deductions as profit. - **Nov 2, 2026**: Palantir reports Q3 2026 after the close. (source: [Palantir via National Law Review](https://natlawreview.com/press-releases/palantir-announces-date-third-quarter-2026-earnings-release-and-webcast)) - **Nov 3, 2026**: America votes for the Congress that writes the budget. - **Dec 11, 2026**: The Pentagon's stopgap budget runs out. The $2.3B request for Maven and a second program isn't passed yet. (source: [Breaking Defense](https://breakingdefense.com/2026/10/cant-start-wont-start-over-150-new-military-programs-face-delay-under-a-cr/)) - **Jun 17, 2027**: Burry's $50 puts expire. (source: [Burry, Substack, Apr 10, 2026](https://michaeljburry.substack.com/p/trade-alert-friday-april-10-2026)) - **Any report**: The tax day: Palantir books its saved-up tax deductions as profit. Profit jumps once, on paper. (source: [Palantir 10-Q, Q2 2026](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000041/pltr-20260630.htm)) [Watch this part on YouTube (30:59)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBobEXakaP0&t=1859) ## Chapters - [0:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBobEXakaP0) What has to happen for that price to pay off? - [1:13](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBobEXakaP0&t=73) Burry's bet against it - [1:43](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBobEXakaP0&t=103) What you'd be buying - [2:38](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBobEXakaP0&t=158) Stop one: what the price counts on - [4:17](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBobEXakaP0&t=257) The price is profit times the P/E - [7:46](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBobEXakaP0&t=466) Stop two: can Karp deliver it? - [9:18](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBobEXakaP0&t=558) People or software? - [13:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBobEXakaP0&t=781) Stop three: where the growth has to come from - [17:03](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBobEXakaP0&t=1023) Can America get there? - [21:36](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBobEXakaP0&t=1296) Before the stock: the people who write about it - [22:18](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBobEXakaP0&t=1338) The headline factory - [25:20](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBobEXakaP0&t=1520) Who checks any of this? - [26:52](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBobEXakaP0&t=1612) What moves the stock? - [29:57](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBobEXakaP0&t=1797) What has to be true for you - [31:23](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBobEXakaP0&t=1883) The Hype Fund, and the buy ## Mentioned in the video - **[Palantir Technologies](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000011/pltr-20251231.htm)**: The company (PLTR) - **Alex Karp**: CEO; earnings calls, CNBC, the 10x goal - **Peter Thiel**: Co-founder and chairman; named the company; Rivendell 7 - **Shyam Sankar**: CTO, Q2 2026 earnings call - **[Michael Burry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Burry)**: Puts against Palantir; Substack and X - **Lockheed Martin · Northrop Grumman · General Dynamics**: The three weapons makers Palantir is worth more than - **[Microsoft](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526323660/msft-20260630.htm)**: The P/E yardstick, 29 - **Snowflake · Databricks**: Data software companies, the size comparisons - **ServiceNow · Workday · Palo Alto Networks · Tesla**: Four tax days - **Cisco · Nvidia**: Two stocks bought at over 200 years of profit - **Fortinet · AppLovin**: Two fast growers at very different P/Es - **Salesforce · Adobe · Datadog · C3.ai**: Months of sales locked in - **[Booz Allen Hamilton](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1443646/000162828026037521/bah-20260331.htm)**: A government consultant: 7 cents of profit per dollar - **[Leidos](https://www.washingtontechnology.com/rankings/top-100/2026/)**: The government's biggest IT contractor - **NATO · UK Ministry of Defence**: Maven Smart System; the £240.6M deal - **ChapsVision**: The French rival picked in France and Germany - **Sébastien Lecornu · Ursula von der Leyen · Donald Trump**: France's prime minister, the head of the EU Commission, the US president - **[Anthropic](https://x.com/AnthropicAI/status/2065597531644743999)**: The June 2026 order - **Gartner · McKinsey · IDC**: Forecasts and surveys on AI at companies - **[The Motley Fool](https://www.fool.com/)**: Most Palantir headlines; "Is it too late?" ×19 - **Seeking Alpha · Barchart · Benzinga · 24/7 Wall St. · Finbold**: Headline counter and the quotes - **FINRA · Lowe v. SEC · Google**: Who checks finance sites - **GraniteShares PTIR · Defiance PLTZ · SPDR S&P 500 ETF**: The funds that double it, double against it, and hold it by weight ## Sources & links Primary sources (SEC filings, company transcripts, the papers themselves) come first where they exist. "Secondary" means another site's report of it. ### The price (0:00) - **10-Q, Q2 2026: shares on the cover, profit, sales** · Palantir via SEC · filed Aug 4, 2026 - **PLTR closes (price on Oct 16, 2026: $186.03)** · Yahoo Finance · secondary - **Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman: shares and sales** · SEC XBRL company facts · [Northrop Grumman](https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001133421.json) - **General Dynamics 10-Q, Q2 2026** · General Dynamics via SEC - **Earnings Insight: S&P 500 trailing 12-month P/E 26.0** · FactSet · Oct 16, 2026 · secondary - **Microsoft 10-K, FY2026** · Microsoft via SEC · Jul 29, 2026 ### What Gus read (0:43) - **Palantir's filings list: 24 annual and quarterly reports since the listing** · SEC EDGAR - **Palantir USG v. United States (DCGS-A bid protest)** · US Court of Federal Claims · Nov 3, 2016 - **Palantir Technologies v. Jain, ruling (ECF 96)** · US District Court SDNY · Mar 5, 2026 - **Federal contracts: Palantir as recipient (Gus counted 439)** · USAspending.gov · [second recipient page](https://www.usaspending.gov/recipient/1ea8a9a4-3726-3491-9040-66950bb67606-C/all) - **Six earnings calls, quotes checked against the audio** · Palantir webcasts on YouTube [Q2 2022](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P406aWBxz0w) · [Q2 2025](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0dYGskaeN-g) · [Q3 2025](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jUnV3LiN0_k) · [Q4 2025](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qQYAHS0oaiY) · [Q1 2026](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Aghjshi3U8) · [Q2 2026](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yTHNjVWnoWo) ### Burry's bet (1:13) - **Trade Alert: "I now own the June 17, 2027 Strike Price 50 Puts"** · Michael Burry, Substack · Apr 10, 2026 - **Burry sells the December puts, keeps the 2027 ones** · 24/7 Wall St. · Sep 10, 2026 · secondary - **Burry's market warnings, some of those read in the original** · Gus's count: seven warnings, two crashes (S&P 500 closes, 20% below a record) [Sep 2019](https://www.wealthmanagement.com/etfs/the-big-short-s-michael-burry-explains-why-index-funds-are-like-subprime-cdos) · [X, Oct 31, 2025](https://x.com/michaeljburry/status/1984067754270319052) · [Substack, May 2026](https://michaeljburry.substack.com/p/short-thoughts-may-10-2026) · [X, Oct 6, 2026](https://x.com/michaeljburry/status/2107345405797122459) ### What you'd be buying (1:43) - **10-K 2025: "not in the business of collecting, mining, or selling data", forward-deployed engineers, US sales** · Palantir via SEC · Feb 17, 2026 - **AIP in Action** · Palantir letter · Apr 27, 2023 - **Palantir for Hospitals** · palantir.com - **ShipOS: the Navy contract, up to $448M** · The Register · Dec 10, 2025 · secondary · [palantir.com/shipos](https://www.palantir.com/shipos/) - **ICE: justification J&A-25-0092 (ImmigrationOS)** · SAM.gov - **Q2 2025 earnings call: "the 10X revenue we are going to get in the US" (33:15)** · Palantir · Aug 4, 2025 · [Q2 2025 release](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165525000105/a2025q2ex991pressrelease.htm) ### Stop one: what the price counts on (2:38) - **10-K 2025, tax note: "Current: Federal $ —"** · Palantir via SEC - **10-Q Q2 2026: valuation allowance, "reasonable possibility", diluted shares** · Palantir via SEC - **The four tax days: ServiceNow, Workday, Palo Alto Networks, Tesla** · Company filings via SEC [ServiceNow 10-Q](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1373715/000137371523000325/now-20230630.htm) · [Workday 10-K](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1327811/000132781124000044/wday-20240131.htm) · [Palo Alto 10-Q](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1327567/000132756724000005/panw-20240131.htm) · [Tesla 10-K](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000162828024002390/tsla-20231231.htm) - **Snowflake 10-Q, Q2 FY2027** · Snowflake via SEC - **Q2 2026 earnings release** · Palantir via SEC (8-K Ex. 99.1) · Aug 3, 2026 - **Historical returns on the S&P 500, 1928 onward** · Aswath Damodaran, NYU Stern · secondary - **Cisco: 10-K405 FY1999 and 10-K FY2026** · Cisco via SEC · [10-K FY2026](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/858877/000085887726000132/csco-20260725.htm) - **Nvidia: 10-K FY2023 and FY2026** · Nvidia via SEC · [FY2026 income statement](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000021/R3.htm) - **Fortinet and AppLovin 10-Qs, Q2 2026** · Via SEC · [AppLovin](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1751008/000175100826000059/app-20260630.htm) ### Stop two: can Karp deliver it? (7:46) - **Q2 2022 earnings call: "So I am driving the company to get to $4.5 billion in 2025" (31:47)** · Palantir · Aug 8, 2022 - **10-Q Q2 2022: remaining performance obligations $1.2B** · Palantir via SEC - **Months of sales locked in: Salesforce, ServiceNow, Workday, Adobe, Datadog, C3.ai** · Latest 10-Qs via SEC · napkin math [Salesforce](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1108524/000110852426000190/crm-20260731.htm) · [ServiceNow](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1373715/000137371526000076/now-20260630.htm) · [Workday](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1327811/000132781126000044/wday-20260731.htm) · [Adobe](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/796343/000079634326000156/adbe-20260828.htm) · [Datadog](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1561550/000162828026054458/ddog-20260630.htm) · [C3.ai](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1577526/000157752626000126/ai-20260731.htm) ### People or software (9:18) - **"a consultant riding a bubble of AI FOMO demand"** · Michael Burry on X · Sep 3, 2026 · [Stocktwits, secondary](https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/michael-burry-palantir-ai-fomo-consultant-warns-market-cap-crash-100b/cZsM8dYRJHH) - **Palantir: An Accounting ("In 9 of the last 12 quarters")** · Michael Burry, Substack · Feb 19, 2026 - **Karp: "The goal is to get 10x revenue and have 3,600 people"** · CNBC · Aug 4, 2025 · [Fortune, Aug 5, 2025](https://fortune.com/2025/08/05/palantir-second-quarter-earnings-crazy-efficient-revolution-ai-job-cuts-alex-karp/) · [CNBC clip](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OrgGDj2VfBA) - **Full-time staff: 10-K 2022, 2024, 2025** · Palantir via SEC · [10-K 2024](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165525000022/pltr-20241231.htm) · [10-K 2025](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000011/pltr-20251231.htm) - **Booz Allen 10-K FY2026 and 10-Q Q1 FY2027** · Booz Allen via SEC · [10-Q](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1443646/000162828026049495/bah-20260630.htm) - **Army TITAN production awards** · DefenseScoop · Sep 1, 2026 · secondary ### Stop three: abroad (13:01) - **Defence expenditure of NATO countries (2014–2026)** · NATO · 2026 - **The Ankara Summit Declaration: "adopting powerful AI models"** · NATO · Jul 8, 2026 - **NATO acquires AI-enabled warfighting system ("taking only six months")** · NATO SHAPE · Apr 14, 2025 - **Ministry of Defence enterprise agreement with Palantir, £240.6M** · UK Find a Tender - **Trump on the Strait of Hormuz** · Truth Social · Mar 31, 2026 - **Germany's domestic intelligence agency and Palantir** · NDR, WDR via tagesschau · May 2026 - **The order on Anthropic's models** · Anthropic on X · Jun 2026 - **Accélérer l'IA dans l'État (DGSI picks ChapsVision)** · French government · Jun 2026 · [Lecornu's video, Jun 16, 2026](https://x.com/SebLecornu/status/2066757435948208622) · [Euronews (Palantir's reply)](https://fr.euronews.com/business/2026/06/16/la-dgsi-delaisse-palantir-au-profit-dune-entreprise-francaise-annonce-sebastien-lecornu) - **SAFE regulation (EU) 2025/1106: the 35% rule** · EUR-Lex - **Readiness 2030: "We must buy more European."** · European Commission · Mar 19, 2025 - **Trends in international arms transfers, 2025** · SIPRI · Mar 2026 - **Q4 2025 earnings call: "we really don't have the bandwidth" (33:54)** · Palantir · Feb 2, 2026 ### Can America get there? (17:03) - **Q2 2026 earnings release: full-year forecast, US government and commercial growth, deal value** · Palantir via SEC · Aug 3, 2026 - **Q1 2026 earnings call: "We are at our limit doing 100 percent this year" (39:55)** · Palantir · May 2026 - **Leidos 10-K FY2025 and the Washington Technology Top 100** · Leidos via SEC · Washington Technology, 2026 · [Top 100](https://www.washingtontechnology.com/rankings/top-100/2026/) - **Federal IT spending: OMB analytical perspectives, Pentagon IT budget** · OMB FY2027 · CAPE FY2026 · [Pentagon IT budget](https://www.cape.osd.mil/content/SNAPIT/files/FY26/TAB%20A_FY26PB%20ITCA%20Budget%20Overview--Final.pdf) - **The Army's enterprise agreement: up to $10B** · USAspending · U.S. Army, Jul 31, 2025 · [army.mil](https://www.army.mil/article/287506/) - **Understanding the President's FY 2027 budget request ($2.3B for Maven and JFN)** · Greenberg Traurig · May 11, 2026 · secondary - **Over 150 new military programs face delay under a CR (until Dec 11)** · Breaking Defense · Oct 2026 · secondary - **Gartner predicts 70% of enterprises will abandon agentic AI built by vendor FDEs by 2028** · Gartner · Sep 29, 2026 - **Q2 2026 earnings call: "Remember, only Palantir has FDEs." (11:10)** · Palantir · Aug 2026 - **The state of AI in 2026: on the road to ROI (37%)** · McKinsey · Aug 2026 - **Databricks surpasses $7B revenue run-rate** · Databricks · Aug 13, 2026 - **Worldwide AI spending forecast to reach $632 billion in 2028** · IDC · Aug 19, 2024 ### The headline factory (21:36) - **Headline counts per site** · Jan 1, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026 · Gus's count, a floor - **How A 'Deviant' Philosopher Built Palantir (the Shire, Gotham, the Batphone)** · Andy Greenberg, Forbes · Aug 14, 2013 · read via the Internet Archive - **Is It Too Late to Buy Palantir Stock? (two of nineteen)** · The Motley Fool · Jan 26, 2025 and Oct 10, 2026 [Jan 26, 2025](https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/01/26/is-it-too-late-to-buy-palantir-stock-in-2025/) · [Oct 10, 2026](https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/10/10/is-it-too-late-to-buy-palantir-stock/) - **Palantir: I Regret Moving To The Sidelines, And I'm Diving Back In** · Seeking Alpha · Nov 3, 2025 - **Down 14%, Should You Buy the Dip on Palantir? · Down 10%, Should You Buy the Dip on Palantir?** · The Motley Fool · Nov 14, 2025 and Jan 4, 2026 - **Don't Miss This Chance to Buy the Dip · Why It's Time to Buy the Dip** · Barchart · May 26 and Jun 24, 2026 [May 26](https://www.barchart.com/story/news/2134228/palantir-stock-is-down-34-from-its-highs-dont-miss-this-chance-to-buy-the-dip) · [Jun 24](https://www.barchart.com/story/news/2634827/palantir-stock-crashes-to-a-52-week-low-why-its-time-to-buy-the-dip) - **Palantir Is Poised to Mint 10,000 Millionaires** · The Motley Fool · Jan 13, 2026 - **Palantir May Control The $50 Trillion Physical AI System** · Benzinga · Mar 20, 2026 - **President Trump Sells Palantir Stock and Buys an AI Stock Up 2,100% Since 2023** · The Motley Fool · Jul 6, 2026 - **"Palantir's co-founder and CEO Peter Thiel"** · The Motley Fool · Feb 20, 2025 - **"The next Palantir": 26 headlines** · Gus's count of the finance sites' headlines - **Finbold's AI price predictions for Palantir (three of more than 30)** · Finbold [Dec 31, 2025](https://finbold.com/ai-predicts-palantir-pltr-stock-price-for-december-31-2025/) · [end of Q2 2026](https://finbold.com/ai-predicts-palantir-stock-price-for-end-of-q2-2026/) · [Sep 30, 2026](https://finbold.com/machine-learning-algorithm-sets-palantir-stock-price-for-september-30-2026/) ### Who checks any of this? (25:20) - **Palantir Will Join The $3 Trillion Club on This Date** · 24/7 Wall St. · Jun 22, 2026 - **FINRA Rule 2210: Communications with the Public** · FINRA - **Lowe v. SEC, 472 U.S. 181 (1985)** · US Supreme Court via Cornell LII - **The Motley Fool's disclosure policy** · fool.com - **Search Quality Rater Guidelines, p. 66** · Google - **Motley Fool ad: "Where to Put $1,000 Right Now"** · Google Ads Transparency Center · Oct 2026 - **Reach, as the sites state it: Motley Fool careers page, Seeking Alpha media kit (2021), Benzinga advertising page** · the sites themselves; Benzinga's page is undated ### What moves the stock (26:52) - **Army taps Palantir for enterprise agreement worth up to $10 billion** · DefenseScoop · Jul 31, 2025 (after the close) - **Palantir, Dell and Erie set to join the S&P 500** · S&P Dow Jones Indices · Sep 6, 2024 - **SPY daily holdings (Palantir 0.691%) and prospectus** · State Street · Oct 15, 2026 · prospectus Jan 26, 2026 · [prospectus](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/884394/000119312526022775/d77353d497.htm) - **Form 4: Rivendell 7 sales, Sep 24 to Oct 1, 2024** · Peter Thiel via SEC · [second filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1211060/000132165524000183/wk-form4_1727825968.xml) - **Form 4: Alex Karp (examples: Aug 20, 2026; tax sale Nov 20, 2025)** · Karp via SEC · Gus's count of 522 filings · [tax sale](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000182395125000002/) · [proxy 2026](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000019/pltr-20260423.htm) - **GraniteShares 2x Long PLTR (PTIR) and Defiance 2x Short PLTR (PLTZ): prospectuses** · Via SEC · prices Yahoo Finance, secondary · [PLTZ](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1924868/000199937126019064/pltz-497k_082826.htm) ### What has to be true, and the buy (29:57) - **Palantir announces date of third quarter 2026 earnings release (Nov 2)** · Business Wire via National Law Review · Oct 12, 2026 - **The Hype Fund: every stock and its entry price** · Gus's disclosed portfolio [The Hype Fund page](https://shortcircuitcreations.com/fund) - **Music and sound effects credits** · Freesound and Kenney, all CC0 (public domain); music from the ElevenLabs music library; the other sound effects are Gus's [Punk_Rock_Short31 (bainmack)](https://freesound.org/people/bainmack/sounds/679186/) · [Train Station Crowd (mrrap4food)](https://freesound.org/people/mrrap4food/sounds/619010/) · [NYC exterior ambience, Myrtle-Broadway (SpliceSound)](https://freesound.org/people/SpliceSound/sounds/260192/) · [NYC diner ambience (edlundart)](https://freesound.org/people/edlundart/sounds/515719/) · [budapest_rain_atmo (Manuskinuski)](https://freesound.org/people/Manuskinuski/sounds/437426/) · [Server Room Ambience (SoundDesignForYou)](https://freesound.org/people/SoundDesignForYou/sounds/646682/) · [Machine room server rack fans (thaighaudio)](https://freesound.org/people/thaighaudio/sounds/349684/) · [Gentle computer hum (dav0r)](https://freesound.org/people/dav0r/sounds/381258/) · [Computer Keyboard - single key - type 1 (yottasounds)](https://freesound.org/people/yottasounds/sounds/380142/) · [Keyboard_Tactile_4 (StavSounds)](https://freesound.org/people/StavSounds/sounds/766634/) · [Keyboard_Tactile_9 (StavSounds)](https://freesound.org/people/StavSounds/sounds/766640/) · [enter key (uEffects)](https://freesound.org/people/uEffects/sounds/180966/) · [Page Turn - 13 (SpaceJoe)](https://freesound.org/people/SpaceJoe/sounds/484933/) · [Beep (ADR countdown) (Azrael1905)](https://freesound.org/people/Azrael1905/sounds/829273/) · [Quindar tones (hz37)](https://freesound.org/people/hz37/sounds/792464/) · [Compressed Air Pressure Release Valve Loop (kkenny101)](https://freesound.org/people/kkenny101/sounds/861613/) · [sparkler_fuse_nm (Alex_hears_things)](https://freesound.org/people/Alex_hears_things/sounds/316682/) · [NASA Artemis II Moon Rocket Launch (qubodup)](https://freesound.org/people/qubodup/sounds/849949/) · [Orbital Rocket Exhaust Close (ImAFoley)](https://freesound.org/people/ImAFoley/sounds/617902/) · [Pressurized Door Opening (NeoSpica)](https://freesound.org/people/NeoSpica/sounds/425090/) · [S40-13 Alien hum or space ship interior (craigsmith)](https://freesound.org/people/craigsmith/sounds/675339/) · [Kenney: Interface Sounds](https://kenney.nl/assets/interface-sounds) · [Kenney: Impact Sounds](https://kenney.nl/assets/impact-sounds) · [Kenney: UI Audio](https://kenney.nl/assets/ui-audio) ## Transcript ### [0:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBobEXakaP0) What has to happen for that price to pay off? Palantir is worth four hundred and forty-seven billion dollars. That's more than three companies that build America's weapons: Lockheed, Northrop and General Dynamics. Combined. Those three outsell Palantir twenty-eight to one. So the price counts on something that hasn't happened yet. What has to happen for that price to pay off? One way to measure a price: years of profit. An S&P 500 index fund costs twenty-six years. Microsoft, twenty-nine. Palantir? Hold that thought. By the end, you'll know what has to be true for you to make money on it. Three stops: what the price counts on, whether the boss can deliver it, and where the growth has to come from. Cartoon, yeah. But I searched Palantir's reports to the SEC. All twenty-four. And read two court rulings. And its federal contracts: I counted four hundred and thirty-nine. Plus six earnings calls. I checked thirteen quotes against the audio. Read it at your pace: the links are on shortcircuitcreations.com. Palantir joins the Hype Fund when this video ends. That's my experiment: the stocks I roast, against the S&P 500. ### [1:13](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBobEXakaP0&t=73) Burry's bet against it On the other side: Michael Burry, from The Big Short. In April, he was betting the price falls, with puts that run into 2027. A put pays off if the stock falls under a set price. His was fifty dollars. Today it's a hundred and eighty-six. So Burry wins if Palantir loses about three quarters. If Burry is right, the Hype Fund takes the hit. Then again, Burry has predicted seven of the last two crashes. Ha ha ha. He got both. ### [1:43](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBobEXakaP0&t=103) What you'd be buying Before the price: what you'd be buying. Palantir doesn't collect data. Its customers already have it, in systems that don't talk to each other. So Palantir sends its own engineers. They connect the systems, so one program can reach every database. On top, Palantir's software pulls it all together and looks for patterns. Since 2023, there's AI on top of that: AIP. You type a question, and it answers from all of it. People or software: which one does the work? Hold that thought. That's stop two. The customers: armies, spy agencies, hospitals, shipyards. And ICE. Its CEO, Alex Karp, has a goal: ten times the sales in America. In his view, within five years. From three point three billion dollars in America last year to thirty-three billion. Keep that number. You'll need it in stop one. ### [2:38](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBobEXakaP0&t=158) Stop one: what the price counts on Stop one: what the price counts on. Those years of profit have a name: P/E. The price divided by one year of profit. Palantir today: a hundred and forty-eight years. Almost six times the index fund. Hope you're patient. And that's with almost no tax. On its US profit, one point six billion dollars before tax in 2025, federal income tax: zero. It's legal. Deductions for paying staff in stock, and old losses. Paying tax in cash comes later. The old losses run out around 2027, as profit grows. Stock deductions can keep it lower for years, if the stock stays high. With a normal tax, a hundred and forty-eight becomes about a hundred and eighty-four. So the price is higher than it looks. From here, I count with normal tax. One quarter will look cheap. Palantir writes there's a 'reasonable possibility' it will book those saved-up deductions as profit. The quarter it does, call it the tax day, profit jumps once. On paper. No new cash comes in. ServiceNow, Workday, Palo Alto and Tesla did the same. Profit jumped. None of the four stocks went up. So if you see record profit that quarter, check for the tax day before you count it. To see what the price pays for, compare a company that sells about as much. Snowflake, another data software company, sells almost as much. The stock market values Palantir at about four times Snowflake. Palantir grew ninety-three percent last quarter, Snowflake thirty-five. Palantir makes money. Snowflake loses it. So the price pays for growth. ### [4:17](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBobEXakaP0&t=257) The price is profit times the P/E Turn the P/E around, and the price is one year of profit times the P/E. Today, that's four hundred and forty-seven billion dollars. Split over its 2.4 billion shares, that's a hundred and eighty-six dollars a share. And about a dollar of profit. A P/E this high comes down when the profit grows into the price. Or when the price falls. Or both. How much growth? Remember Karp's goal. At Karp's goal, US sales are thirty-three billion. Add the rest of the world, growing about a third a year like now: about thirty-eight billion. Keep today's profit per dollar of sales, with normal tax: about fifteen billion dollars. Keep today's price, and divide it by that profit. That fills the empty frame: a P/E of about thirty. Palantir pays its staff in new shares, so the profit is split more ways: about fourteen billion for today's shares. Counting that, about thirty-two. About what Microsoft costs today. A low P/E is good when you buy. In 2030, your share is worth what the next buyer would pay. Per share, the profit at Karp's goal is about five dollars eighty. So in 2030, at thirty-two years of profit, like Microsoft today, a share is still a hundred and eighty-six dollars. If you bought today, you'd pay for Karp's goal up front. Four years, for nothing. Since 1928, the S&P 500 has averaged about ten percent a year. At that pace, a thousand dollars in an index fund today is about fifteen hundred in 2030. At thirty-two, hitting the goal only gets your money back. Anything you make comes from beyond the goal: more profit than it brings, or growth that keeps going after 2030. In 2000, at the top of the dot-com bubble, Cisco cost over two hundred years of profit. The stock fell first. Then its profit per share grew seven to eight times. The stock took almost twenty-six years to get back. By then, it cost about thirty-one years of profit. Nvidia, in 2023, also cost over two hundred years of profit. Then its profit per share grew forty-one times, far more than the price counted on. The stock: five point six times. Even there, the P/E fell, to twenty-seven. Two famous cases, both picked after the fact. The other way: growth that keeps going after 2030. To keep up with an index fund, a share has to be worth about two hundred and eighty dollars. With the profit at Karp's goal, the next buyer has to pay a P/E of about forty-eight. So in 2030, buyers still have to see years of fast growth ahead. Do fast growers get that price? Two that grow fast today. Fortinet, a firewall maker, grew twenty-six percent last quarter. Its P/E is fifty-nine. AppLovin, an app ad company, grew fifty-three percent. Its P/E is twenty. So growth alone doesn't set the price. At AppLovin's twenty, a share in 2030 is worth about a hundred and seventeen dollars. And at Fortinet's fifty-nine, about three hundred and forty-five. For you, the first thing that has to be true: in 2030, the profit per share times the P/E beats about two hundred and eighty dollars. At Karp's goal, that takes a P/E of forty-eight. Thirty-two only gives you your hundred and eighty-six back. Fall short on one, and you need more of the other. Can Karp deliver it? That's stop two. ### [7:46](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBobEXakaP0&t=466) Stop two: can Karp deliver it? Stop two: can Karp deliver it? First, has he done this before? In 2022, Karp aimed for four and a half billion dollars in sales in 2025. He got within twenty-five million. And beat his own forecast eighteen quarters in a row. So his goals have held up. That goal was about two point four times in three years. This one is ten times in five. So his record is a good sign. It isn't proof. One check: contracts customers can't cancel, for work Palantir hasn't delivered yet. Together they're worth about ten months of its sales. Is that a lot? Three big software companies whose contracts can't be cancelled have eighteen to thirty-two months. Three that sell by the year, or let customers cancel, have about ten. Like Palantir. Palantir lets many customers cancel on less than a year's notice. Those contracts don't count here. And the US government can't lock in a contract's later years more than a year ahead. So ten months is low, but normal for contracts like these. And the biggest customers stay anyway. Palantir's top three have been with it fifteen years on average. But everything locked in today adds up to about an eighth of one year's sales in 2030, at the goal. Remember, if you bought today, you'd pay for Karp's goal up front. Seven eighths of it isn't locked in yet. Last time, it was about twice that. The goal was smaller, and a year closer. He came within twenty-five million anyway. So signed contracts don't settle it. ### [9:18](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBobEXakaP0&t=558) People or software? Burry, who's betting against it, has his own answer: 'a consultant riding a bubble of AI FOMO demand.' Remember the engineers Palantir sends on site? That's what Burry calls consulting. Connecting the systems is work people do, and Palantir bills for it. Of what the US government bought in 2025, about a quarter was paid as hours. So Burry has a point, for about a quarter of it. A consultant sells hours, so more sales need more people. Software is written once and sold many times. So that's the question from the start: people or software. In August 2025, Karp put a headcount on that goal. He told CNBC: 'The goal is to get 10x revenue and have 3,600 people.' In 2030, at the goal, that's ten point six million dollars of sales per person. Today, one point four. So ten times with fewer people only works if Palantir really is software. He called it 'a crazy, efficient revolution.' Five months later: four thousand four hundred and twenty-nine people. More sales still took more people, but far fewer per dollar. Last year, sales grew fifty-six percent. Staff, thirteen. In June: four thousand four hundred and one, still about eight hundred above his goal. But sales kept climbing. In 2022, sales per person were half a million dollars. Today, one point four: nearly three times. So the direction is right. To reach ten point six million, it has to rise almost eight times again. Booz Allen, a government consultant, sells almost twice as much. It keeps seven cents of profit per dollar. Palantir, today: thirty-nine. At seven cents, Palantir's P/E at the goal would be about a hundred and eighty. So the price only holds if Palantir keeps its software margins. Another way to more sales per person: bigger bills. Where Palantir is almost alone, in the Pentagon's targeting software, it has won every head-to-head contest on record. Its twenty biggest customers now pay a hundred and twenty-four million dollars a year each. A year ago, seventy-five. So more sales per person can also come from bigger bills. Handy, when you're almost alone. Good for profit. It just doesn't prove the software does the work. In court this year, the ruling quotes Palantir's own witness: a software company, and a consulting company. On profit per dollar, the numbers side with software. Burry's other point is about bills already sent: money customers still owe Palantir. From 2023 to 2025, in nine of twelve quarters, that money grew faster than sales. Why it matters: sales can be booked before the cash comes in. In 2021, customers paid in about forty-five days. Now it's over seventy. Their terms say thirty to sixty. On that, Burry's numbers check out. Palantir says it now bills some customers once a year, some afterwards. But the profit turned into cash: two point one billion dollars in the first half, on reported profit of one point nine. The cash beats the profit because staff are paid in shares. That cost lands on you as new shares, and I counted it in stop one. So today's profit is real money. So: his record is good, the margins say software, and the profit is cash. Against it: seven eighths of the goal isn't locked in, sales per person have to rise almost eight times, and sales take longer to turn into cash. Can he deliver? Maybe. For you, that's the second thing that has to be true: the software does the work. That's what keeps the thirty-nine cents per dollar. Ten times still has to come from somewhere. ### [13:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBobEXakaP0&t=781) Stop three: where the growth has to come from Stop three: where the growth has to come from. In stop one, I counted thirty-eight billion dollars in sales for 2030. Thirty-three from America. Five from the rest of the world. First, the five. Does it hold? Last year, Palantir's sales outside the US were one point two billion dollars. About a quarter of all its sales. To reach five by 2030, that has to grow about four times. In 2025, governments abroad bought forty-seven percent more. Companies abroad, two percent. This year, companies joined. In the first half, up twenty-six percent. Governments, forty-six. In total, abroad grew twenty percent last year. So far this year, thirty-five. Stop one counted with about a third a year. So if this pace lasts, the five billion holds. More abroad is one way to beat the thirty-eight billion. Could it stay a quarter of sales, like today? That takes fifty-seven percent a year. So far this year, thirty-five. Governments carry abroad. For them, two things decide if it speeds up. The money they spend, and whether they trust American software. First, the money. Europe and Canada's defense spending, after inflation: four hundred and eighty billion dollars in 2024. This year, six hundred and thirty-four. And NATO's summit this year committed to 'adopting powerful AI models.' It already bought Palantir's targeting system, Maven. In NATO's words, it took 'only six months.' One country stands out. Over a third of Palantir's sales abroad are in Britain, and they grew every year. From a hundred and seventy-three million dollars in 2021 to four hundred and twenty-seven million in 2025. Last December, Britain's defense ministry signed a new deal: three years, two hundred and forty million pounds. About eighty million a year. There was no tender, so no one else got to bid. So the money is there. Britain and NATO buy, and fast. But money is half of it. The other half is trust. In March, about the Strait of Hormuz, Trump told countries like Britain: 'the U.S.A. won't be there to help you anymore.' In May, German press reported that Germany's domestic intelligence agency picked a French rival of Palantir, ChapsVision. In June, Washington ordered Anthropic, an American AI company, to cut off every foreign national from its two most advanced models. Four days later, France's prime minister said its domestic intelligence agency would replace Palantir. With the same French company. One contract. But listen to his reason: 'We cannot depend on the goodwill of certain partners capable, as we have seen in recent days, of cutting off access to Anthropic's models.' Palantir says that contract is still in force. France's decision is to leave. With the EU's new defense loans, at most thirty-five percent of a weapon's parts can come from outside the EU, counted by cost. Software isn't named, so the rule doesn't clearly cover Palantir. But the head of the EU Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, says: 'We must buy more European.' And Palantir has warned about this in every report since 2020: its 'perceived relationship with the U.S. government.' My read: the direction is set. For intelligence software, the EU wants its own, and it's putting the money at home. For the rest of defense, like Maven, its own takes years to build. Until then, Europe buys American. The US supplied fifty-eight percent of European NATO members' arms imports. Karp, in February: 'we really don't have the bandwidth to do anything that's difficult outside of America.' On Europe, he added: 'the issue ends up being their issue more than our issue.' And Britain keeps buying. So the five billion can hold. More than five, I wouldn't count on. For you, that's the third thing that has to be true: abroad keeps growing about a third a year. Nine tenths of the growth is America's. Can America get there? That's next. ### [17:03](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBobEXakaP0&t=1023) Can America get there? So, can America get there? Karp's ten times counts from last year's three point three billion. Palantir's forecast, minus abroad, gives about six point six this year. The goal is thirty-three. From here, that takes about fifty percent a year, for four years. Right now, US sales are up a hundred and ten percent in the first half. So today, America grows twice as fast as the goal needs. Karp, in May: 'We are at our limit doing a hundred percent this year.' And: 'maybe we can do a hundred percent next year in the U.S.' So the speed is there. Next year is his 'maybe'. America has two halves: the government, and companies. About half each. Growth has slowed before. US sales went from thirty-two percent growth in 2022 to nineteen in 2023. The government half, eleven and a half. Can each half keep up? The government first. Last quarter, the government half grew ninety percent. If the split holds, at the goal the government buys about seventeen billion dollars a year from Palantir. Leidos is the government's biggest IT contractor. It sells about that much, to everyone. Oh well. It's only taxpayers' money. Of every dollar Washington spends on IT, Palantir gets about two cents today. At the goal, ten. For the goal: every president has committed more to Palantir per year than the one before. Both parties. Committed means money set aside in contracts, as the public database shows it. About two thirds of that money is defense. So the government half rides on the defense budget. This year, the Pentagon asked for two point three billion dollars. For Palantir's Maven, the targeting system NATO bought, and a second program. Congress hasn't passed it. Until December 11th, the Pentagon runs on last year's budget. So that new money isn't there yet. And committed is less than the headlines. Those are ceilings. The Army's deal says 'up to ten billion dollars'. So far, the Army has committed one point two. Remember 'almost alone' from stop two? Across all federal contracts, it has a number. Eighty-two percent of Palantir's federal contract dollars had one bid, or no competition at all. For the goal, few rivals. Good thing there's competition. But Palantir's own annual report warns that government spending 'may not be sustained at the levels' of last year. Palantir reports on November 2nd. The next day, America votes for the Congress that writes the budget. Civilian orders follow who's in power. Health and Human Services ordered much less under Trump so far than under Biden. ICE, immigration enforcement, ordered more. So today, the government half grows fast enough. But what it buys depends on who's in power, and on Congress, every year. Now companies. If the split holds, at the goal US companies buy about sixteen billion a year from Palantir. Snowflake from stop one and Databricks also sell data software. Combined, worldwide, they sell twelve point four billion. Less than Palantir's company half, in America alone. Of every dollar American companies are forecast to spend on AI software, the goal needs between five and twenty cents. Washington's side needed ten. The forecasts only reach 2028, and they differ a lot. For the goal: US companies grew a hundred and forty-nine percent last quarter. Deal value still to come from them is up a hundred and twenty-four. Against the goal: the tech research firm Gartner predicts that by 2028, seventy percent of companies will abandon AI agents built by engineers the seller sends in. They're called FDEs. Gartner doesn't name Palantir. Palantir's CTO did, in August: 'only Palantir has FDEs.' So Gartner's warning is about how Palantir sells. And in McKinsey's survey, only thirty-seven percent of companies see AI in their operating profit. Companies like these are the buyers of the sixteen billion. Most don't see the payoff yet. Palantir's customer count grew twenty-four percent, down from forty-three. So more of the growth has to come from bigger bills. For you, that's the fourth thing that has to be true: both halves keep about fifty percent a year. Four years in a row. The government on budgets and votes. Companies on AI paying off. Today both grow faster. In 2023, the government grew eleven and a half. That's the business. Now the stock. ### [21:36](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBobEXakaP0&t=1296) Before the stock: the people who write about it Before the stock, the people who write about it. If you're only here for the analysis, skip to the chapter 'What moves the stock?' Everyone else: I'm going to enjoy this. First, the name. Palantir is named after the seeing stones in Lord of the Rings. Peter Thiel named it. The headquarters was called the Shire. His Palantir shares sit in companies called Rivendell. The New York office was Gotham. The ethics hotline? The Batphone. They're Lord of the Rings and Batman fans. Look into one, and you see what the others see. Let's hook it up to my database. More than eight hundred thousand finfluencer headlines, on every stock. Good god. Yeah, I know. ### [22:18](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBobEXakaP0&t=1338) The headline factory Here's what the finfluencers sent out. Since January 2025: more than four thousand four hundred Palantir headlines. Palantir reports four times a year. Motley Fool writes about it twice a day. That's about a hundred and ninety articles for every report. What do you write about one report a hundred and ninety times? Three hundred of them say buy. Nothing new. Finfluencers believe in rising prices. Even when it falls, it's really rising. So what do they say? Here's the stock since January 2025. Nineteen times, Motley Fool has asked if it's too late to buy it. At seventy-nine dollars, the answer was 'stay away.' At two hundred and nine: 'just getting started.' Uuuuh? But what did they say when it fell? On the highest close of 2025, two hundred and seven dollars, Seeking Alpha ran this. 'I regret moving to the sidelines, and I'm diving back in.' Motley Fool, at a hundred and seventy-four: 'dips like this are golden opportunities.' At a hundred and sixty-eight: 'It won't be down for long.' Barchart, at a hundred and thirty-seven: 'Don't miss this chance to buy the dip.' At a hundred and fourteen: 'Why it's time to buy the dip.' Those two Barchart articles have the same writer, and mostly the same text. Only the price moved. The bottom came the next day. A hundred and seven dollars. Not one of these said wait. It came back. The one who bought on Seeking Alpha's headline is still down ten percent. When they put numbers on it, the numbers get big. Motley Fool, January: 'Palantir is poised to mint ten thousand millionaires.' Their example: 'Microsoft minted ten thousand millionaires.' By their own number, Microsoft went up more than a hundred times. A hundred times from that day makes Palantir worth about forty-three trillion dollars. Ha ha ha. Today it's four hundred and forty-seven billion. Benzinga, in March: 'Palantir may control the fifty trillion dollar physical AI system.' Same article: 'no single company owns physical AI.' Even a sell headline can be a buy. Like this one. 'President Trump Sells Palantir Stock and Buys an AI Stock.' It ends: 'Investors should consider buying a small position in Western Digital.' Bold call. Two articles a day also means mistakes. Motley Fool, February 2025: 'Palantir's co-founder and CEO Peter Thiel.' The CEO is Alex Karp. And if you missed Palantir, they have the next one. Twenty-six headlines used the words 'the next Palantir'. Ten were from Motley Fool. The typical one since its headline: down fifty-eight percent. Palantir itself: up forty-one. Finbold goes further. It asks AI where Palantir will trade on a given date. Nineteen of those dates have passed. Thirteen times, just guessing today's price was closer. Finbold has published more than thirty of these predictions. Congratulations, Finbold. ### [25:20](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBobEXakaP0&t=1520) Who checks any of this? So who checks any of this? 24/7 Wall St., in June: 'Palantir will join the three trillion dollar club on this date.' For a broker, the regulator has a rule. Everything must be 'fair and balanced.' And no predictions of performance, unless it shows the basis and the risks. A website needs no license for that. It counts as a publisher. The Supreme Court said publishers are exempt for 'disinterested commentary and analysis.' Disinterested means no stake in it. Under Motley Fool's Palantir articles: 'The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Palantir Technologies.' Disinterested. And Google? Its manual for rating search results says stock advice with no proof of expertise gets a 'Low'. This month, Motley Fool ran this as a Google ad. 'Where to put a thousand dollars right now. This could be like Netflix in October 2004.' So to say buy, a broker needs a license and has to stay fair and balanced. A website needs a headline. And Google takes the ad money. And my own footnote? My Hype Fund buys the stocks I roast. The ones they shout about most. I'll get to that at the end. For you: none of these headlines checks the four things on your list. They come after the price moves. Motley Fool says its free articles reach 'millions of prospective members each month.' Seeking Alpha says seventeen million visitors. Benzinga, twelve million. That's a lot of people to tell 'buy' three hundred times. I could make a whole series out of just this. ### [26:52](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBobEXakaP0&t=1612) What moves the stock? So what does move the stock? The day after the Army announced its up-to-ten-billion-dollar deal, the stock fell two point six percent. The whole market fell one point six that day. The Monday after the S&P 500 said it was adding Palantir, the stock rose fourteen percent. Index funds had to buy it. The biggest moves come on report days. Eight reports in two years, every one moved it at least six percent. So reports and index money move it. Even an up-to-ten-billion-dollar deal barely did. An index fund buys every stock in the index, by its weight. Of every hundred dollars into an S&P 500 fund, sixty-nine cents buys Palantir. So if you own an S&P 500 fund, you already own some Palantir. When people sell the fund, it sells Palantir too. Either way, it trades at today's price. Nobody in the fund picks it. So index money never asks if the price is fair. What about insiders selling? Every sale by the people running a company is filed with the S-E-C, on a Form 4. Right after Palantir joined the S&P 500, Rivendell 7 sold a billion dollars of Palantir stock. Remember Rivendell? That's Peter Thiel, Palantir's chairman. The sale was on a plan set in May, before the index news. So he didn't pick the day. Karp has sold three and a half billion dollars of stock since the listing. At about thirty-five dollars a share, about a fifth of today's price. His shares came as pay, mostly as options. He sold on a plan set in advance. And he still owns about eleven billion dollars' worth. In the last year, nine tenths of his sales were automatic, to pay the tax on new shares. My read: insider selling looks scary until you read the Form 4. Nobody now running Palantir or on its board has bought a share on the market since the listing. They get paid in shares. None of them buys more. Remember the fall from last November's high? Almost half, to a hundred and seven. Then it rose seventy-three percent, to a hundred and eighty-six. Sales grew every quarter, the whole way. Remember, the price is the profit times the P/E. The profit grew. So the whole fall was the P/E: money and opinions. Some people bet on those swings. There are funds that do twice what it does, every day. And funds that do twice the opposite. Remember the one who bought on that November headline? Ten thousand dollars in is now about nine thousand. In the biggest fund that doubles it, about five thousand three hundred. In the one that doubles against it, about three thousand seven hundred. Doubling every day loses in a stock that swings this much. Both directions lost. Betting on the swings didn't pay. Holding lost less. But at the bottom, your ten thousand was about five thousand two hundred. Anyone who sold there missed the way back. This time, it came back. If the first four hold, a fall on the way doesn't change 2030. It only costs you if you have to sell. So the fifth thing that has to be true for you: you can watch your money halve, and not sell. ### [29:57](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBobEXakaP0&t=1797) What has to be true for you So here's what has to be true for you to make money. One: in 2030, the profit per share times the P/E beats about two hundred and eighty dollars. At Karp's goal, that takes a P/E of forty-eight. For the goal, three more. Two: the software does the work. Sales per person almost eight times higher. Three: abroad keeps growing about a third a year. Four: in America, government and companies both keep about fifty percent a year, four years in a row. And five: you can watch your money halve, and not sell. Right now, US sales grow more than twice as fast as the goal needs. Keep that up, and it goes beyond the goal. It has to last four years. The business has almost no holes. The price is the hole. That's the risk: miss the growth, and the price falls. It already halved once, while sales were still growing. That's why five is on the list. So the number to watch is American sales. About fifty percent a year, until 2030. Dates we check. November 2nd: Palantir's next report, and report days move it most. December 11th: the government's stopgap budget runs out. June 2027: Burry's bet against it runs out. And any report can bring the tax day from stop one. Drop your hype in the comments: where is Palantir on November 3rd, the day after its report, and the day America votes? ### [31:23](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBobEXakaP0&t=1883) The Hype Fund, and the buy The Hype Fund so far. Micron, minus fifteen percent since it joined. SpaceX, plus five. The same money in the S&P 500, same days: about flat. In every episode, we set a plan before we buy. Then we follow it. We sit calm in the boat. So. Would my math buy it at this price? No. It needs more than Karp's goal. The Hype Fund buys what the headlines shout about. So it buys it anyway. That's the experiment. If Burry is right, Palantir's spot in the fund loses about three quarters. To the moon! Haha hahaha! ## Disclosure Gus never tells anyone what to buy or sell. Facts about companies come from the sources above. The roasting is satire. **Disclosure:** Gus owns Palantir. It joined [The Hype Fund](https://shortcircuitcreations.com/fund) on Oct 21, 2026 at $194.20. Gus has positions in every stock in The Hype Fund. He recommends none of them. Watch the whole episode: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBobEXakaP0