# The Scorecard

> Text version of The Scorecard page on Short Circuit Creations: https://shortcircuitcreations.com/scorecard

Every Hype Fund episode ends with a list of what has to be true. Gus checks each list after every report, red as clearly as green.

Next check Dec 9, 2026: Broadcom's Q4 report.

## Where each list stands

### [Broadcom (AVGO)](https://shortcircuitcreations.com/scorecard/broadcom/)

Last updated Oct 27, 2026. 0 on track, 0 missed, 7 still to come. Latest update: Broadcom Q3 fiscal 2026: AI sales $16.7 billion, $21.7 billion forecast for Q4. Next check Dec 9, 2026: Broadcom's Q4 report.

| What has to be true | Goal | Episode Oct '26 | Since |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| AI sales on the path to the goal | about +11.58% a quarter: $21.7B, then $24.21B, up to $33.63B, $115B in a year | $16.7B | no report yet |
| The customers spend 30% more | Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta and Oracle in 2027; Broadcom's slice 7.2¢ → 11.06¢ | ≈ $800B | about $800B in 2026 |
| The customers take delivery and Anthropic pays | nothing paid out on the $29B guarantee or the $42B loan | $0 paid out | settled in 2028 |
| The margin holds | the chip business keeps over 55¢ of each dollar as operating profit | 61.28¢ | no report yet |
| VMware customers renew | software sales, about +10% a year | +29% | no report yet |
| The 2028 math | a share worth about $335.41 in 2028 at the goal a year late; beating an index fund takes a P/E of 22.42 | P/E 42.83 | settled in 2028 |
| Gus didn't sell | The Hype Fund still holds it. Biggest fall since it bought: −11% | $329.17 | no report yet |

### [IonQ (IONQ)](https://shortcircuitcreations.com/scorecard/ionq/)

Last updated Nov 9, 2026. 0 on track, 0 missed, 7 still to come. Latest update: IonQ Q3 2026: pro forma sales flat at $215.8M, operating loss $433.1M. Next check: IonQ's annual report for 2026, the 10-K.

| What has to be true | Goal | Episode Nov '26 | Since |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Pro forma sales grow 32% a year | against the same quarter a year before, everything IonQ bought counted in both years; Q3: $215.8M against $217.3M | −0.68% | no report yet |
| Operating loss under the third quarter's | against $433.1M in Q3 2026; $75.7M in Q1 2025, bigger six quarters in a row | −$433.1M | no report yet |
| Adjusted EBITDA loss | the company's own measure, the warrant line taken out, against a loss of $133.6M in Q3 2026 | −$133.6M | no report yet |
| Share count grows 3% a year | against a year before; the bull case counts 3% for staff pay, last year it was 39% | +39.49% | no report yet |
| The cash lasts to 2028 | $1.66B on September 30 and $1.99B from the October raise, against $1.3B a year of free cash flow at Q3's pace | $3.65B | Just under $3.7B today |
| The 2030 math | $77.56 a share on the logical bull case, 2.38 times; $47.79 if it goes like the S&P 500 | $32.62 | settled in 2030 |
| Gus didn't sell | The Hype Fund still holds it. Biggest fall since it bought: −1% | $35.41 | no report yet |

### [Alphabet (GOOGL)](https://shortcircuitcreations.com/scorecard/alphabet/)

Last updated Nov 4, 2026. 0 on track, 0 missed, 7 still to come. Latest update: Alphabet Q3 2026: profit per share $2.67 without the paper gains, cloud margin 36.21%. Next check: Alphabet's Q4 report.

| What has to be true | Goal | Episode Nov '26 | Since |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Profit per share without the paper gains | above $2.67 a quarter, the Q3 2026 number; Q4 is the first reading | $2.67 | no report yet |
| The cloud keeps 31.9¢ of each dollar | Google Cloud's operating margin, the line for the index; 23.71¢ a year before | 36.21¢ | no report yet |
| Services grows 8% a year | Google Services' operating profit against the same quarter a year before; 9.5% without the legal costs | +5.88% | no report yet |
| Cloud sales grow 24.40% a year | the yearly pace from Q3 2026: $122.8B a year to $365.8B in 2031 | $30.71B | no report yet |
| The stake comes back as cloud profit | the cloud's operating profit on the 30¢ row; the stake is $195B to $205B this year | $44.5B | $44.5B a year today |
| The 2031 math | $474 a share on our row (Services 8%, cloud 30¢) against the index's $485 | $279.84 | settled in 2031 |
| Gus didn't sell | The Hype Fund still holds it. Biggest fall since it bought: −3% | $289.93 | no report yet |

### [Palantir (PLTR)](https://shortcircuitcreations.com/scorecard/palantir/)

Last updated Nov 3, 2026. 2 on track, 1 missed, 2 still to come. Latest update: Palantir Q3 2026 earnings: US sales +119%, international +26%. Next check: The 10-Q with the head count, for sales per person. Then Q4, in February.

| What has to be true | Goal | Episode Oct '26 | Since |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| America keeps growing | US sales, about +50% a year | +110% | 2026 Q3 +119% |
| Abroad keeps growing | international sales, about +33% a year | +35% | 2026 Q3 +26% |
| The software does the work | sales per person, $1.4M → $10.6M | $1.4M | $1.4M today |
| The 2030 math | profit per share × P/E beats $280 | P/E 148 | settled in 2030 |
| Gus didn't sell | The Hype Fund still holds it. Biggest fall since it bought: −20% | $194.20 | 2026 Q3 held |

## Latest updates

- [IonQ Q3 2026: pro forma sales flat at $215.8M, operating loss $433.1M](https://shortcircuitcreations.com/scorecard/ionq/#u-2026-11-09), Nov 9, 2026, IonQ (IONQ)
- [Alphabet Q3 2026: profit per share $2.67 without the paper gains, cloud margin 36.21%](https://shortcircuitcreations.com/scorecard/alphabet/#u-2026-11-04), Nov 4, 2026, Alphabet (GOOGL)
- [Palantir Q3 2026 earnings: US sales +119%, international +26%](https://shortcircuitcreations.com/scorecard/palantir/#u-2026-11-03), Nov 3, 2026, Palantir (PLTR)
- [Broadcom Q3 fiscal 2026: AI sales $16.7 billion, $21.7 billion forecast for Q4](https://shortcircuitcreations.com/scorecard/broadcom/#u-2026-10-27), Oct 27, 2026, Broadcom (AVGO)
- [Palantir Q2 2026: US sales +110% in the first half](https://shortcircuitcreations.com/scorecard/palantir/#u-2026-10-22), Oct 22, 2026, Palantir (PLTR)

Gus has positions in every stock in The Hype Fund. He recommends none of them.