# Is Alphabet stock on track to beat the index?

> Text version of the Alphabet (GOOGL) earnings scorecard on Short Circuit Creations: https://shortcircuitcreations.com/scorecard/alphabet/

Next check: Alphabet's Q4 report. The date isn't out yet; last year it came on February 4. The number to watch: profit per share without the paper gains, against $2.67. Above it, the pace turned up. At it, no climb in a year. Below it, two quarters down in a row.

## Alphabet earnings scorecard

*What has to be true for Alphabet stock, report by report until 2031*

| What has to be true | Goal | Episode Nov '26 | Since |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Profit per share without the paper gains | above $2.67 a quarter, the Q3 2026 number; Q4 is the first reading | $2.67 | no report yet |
| The cloud keeps 31.9¢ of each dollar | Google Cloud's operating margin, the line for the index; 23.71¢ a year before | 36.21¢ | no report yet |
| Services grows 8% a year | Google Services' operating profit against the same quarter a year before; 9.5% without the legal costs | +5.88% | no report yet |
| Cloud sales grow 24.40% a year | the yearly pace from Q3 2026: $122.8B a year to $365.8B in 2031 | $30.71B | no report yet |
| The stake comes back as cloud profit | the cloud's operating profit on the 30¢ row; the stake is $195B to $205B this year | $44.5B | $44.5B a year today |
| The 2031 math | $474 a share on our row (Services 8%, cloud 30¢) against the index's $485 | $279.84 | settled in 2031 |
| Gus didn't sell | The Hype Fund still holds it. Biggest fall since it bought: −3% | $289.93 | no report yet |

From Alphabet's quarterly reports to the SEC (10-Q and 10-K): profit per share with the gains and losses on its stock holdings taken out (other income), Google Cloud's operating margin, Google Services' operating profit against the same quarter a year earlier, and Google Cloud's sales against the $30.71 billion of Q3 2026. Gus's trades are on [the Hype Fund page](https://shortcircuitcreations.com/fund).

## Every update

### Alphabet Q3 2026: profit per share $2.67 without the paper gains, cloud margin 36.21%
*2026-11-04 · The episode*

On the episode's row the share is worth $474 in 2031: Services profit grows 8% a year and the cloud keeps 30¢ of each dollar. The index puts the stock at $485. The line the cloud has to hold is 31.9¢; in Q3 it kept 36.21¢. Services profit grew 5.88%, 9.5% without the legal costs.

Next check: Q4, date not out yet. The number to watch is profit per share without the paper gains, against $2.67. Report after report: the cloud's margin against 31.9¢, Services' growth against 8% and cloud sales against 24.40% a year.

Sources: [10-Q, Q3 2026](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000165204426000084/goog-20260930.htm) · [earnings release](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000165204426000080/googexhibit991q32026.htm)

Watch the episode: https://shortcircuitcreations.com/episodes/alphabet/

Gus has positions in every stock in The Hype Fund. He recommends none of them.