# Is Broadcom on track for its AI goal?

> Text version of the Broadcom (AVGO) earnings scorecard on Short Circuit Creations: https://shortcircuitcreations.com/scorecard/broadcom/

Next check Dec 9, 2026: Broadcom's Q4 report. The number to watch: the AI sales forecast for next quarter. $24.21B is on the path to the goal. Coming up after it: the 10-K, then the big customers' spending plans for 2027, with their reports in late January.

## Broadcom earnings scorecard

*What has to be true for Broadcom stock, report by report until 2028*

| What has to be true | Goal | Episode Oct '26 | Since |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| AI sales on the path to the goal | about +11.58% a quarter: $21.7B, then $24.21B, up to $33.63B, $115B in a year | $16.7B | no report yet |
| The customers spend 30% more | Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta and Oracle in 2027; Broadcom's slice 7.2¢ → 11.06¢ | ≈ $800B | about $800B in 2026 |
| The customers take delivery and Anthropic pays | nothing paid out on the $29B guarantee or the $42B loan | $0 paid out | settled in 2028 |
| The margin holds | the chip business keeps over 55¢ of each dollar as operating profit | 61.28¢ | no report yet |
| VMware customers renew | software sales, about +10% a year | +29% | no report yet |
| The 2028 math | a share worth about $335.41 in 2028 at the goal a year late; beating an index fund takes a P/E of 22.42 | P/E 42.83 | settled in 2028 |
| Gus didn't sell | The Hype Fund still holds it. Biggest fall since it bought: −11% | $329.17 | no report yet |

From Broadcom's quarterly reports to the SEC: AI sales against the quarter before, the chip business's operating margin, software sales against the same quarter a year earlier. Customer spending from the five builders' filings. Gus's trades are on [the Hype Fund page](https://shortcircuitcreations.com/fund).

## Every update

### Broadcom Q3 fiscal 2026: AI sales $16.7 billion, $21.7 billion forecast for Q4
*2026-10-27 · The episode*

The goal, about $115 billion in AI sales in fiscal 2027, needs about 11.58% more every quarter from the Q4 forecast. The price already counts on it a year late: a P/E of 42.83 at $321.68.

Next check: Q4, December 9. The number to watch is the AI forecast for next quarter: $24.21 billion is on the path.

Sources: [10-Q, Q3 fiscal 2026](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1730168/000173016826000080/avgo-20260802.htm) · [earnings release](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1730168/000173016826000076/avgo-08022026x8kxex99.htm)

Watch the episode: https://shortcircuitcreations.com/episodes/broadcom/

Gus has positions in every stock in The Hype Fund. He recommends none of them.