# Is IonQ on track?

> Text version of the IonQ (IONQ) earnings scorecard on Short Circuit Creations: https://shortcircuitcreations.com/scorecard/ionq/

Next check: IonQ's annual report for 2026, the 10-K. The date isn't out yet; last year it came on February 25. The number to watch: pro forma sales in the fourth quarter, the full year minus the nine months, against the same quarter a year before. The line is 32%. Next to it: the operating loss against $433.1 million and adjusted EBITDA against a loss of $133.6 million.

## IonQ earnings scorecard

*What has to be true for IonQ stock, report by report*

| What has to be true | Goal | Episode Nov '26 | Since |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Pro forma sales grow 32% a year | against the same quarter a year before, everything IonQ bought counted in both years; Q3: $215.8M against $217.3M | −0.68% | no report yet |
| Operating loss under the third quarter's | against $433.1M in Q3 2026; $75.7M in Q1 2025, bigger six quarters in a row | −$433.1M | no report yet |
| Adjusted EBITDA loss | the company's own measure, the warrant line taken out, against a loss of $133.6M in Q3 2026 | −$133.6M | no report yet |
| Share count grows 3% a year | against a year before; the bull case counts 3% for staff pay, last year it was 39% | +39.49% | no report yet |
| The cash lasts to 2028 | $1.66B on September 30 and $1.99B from the October raise, against $1.3B a year of free cash flow at Q3's pace | $3.65B | Just under $3.7B today |
| The 2030 math | $77.56 a share on the logical bull case, 2.38 times; $47.79 if it goes like the S&P 500 | $32.62 | settled in 2030 |
| Gus didn't sell | The Hype Fund still holds it. Biggest fall since it bought: −1% | $35.41 | no report yet |

From IonQ's quarterly reports to the SEC (10-Q and 10-K): pro forma sales from the note on the acquisitions, the fourth quarter as the full year minus nine months; the operating loss; adjusted EBITDA from the earnings release; the share count from the cover against a year earlier. The 2030 row and the cash row are napkin math on the episode's numbers. Gus's trades are on [the Hype Fund page](https://shortcircuitcreations.com/fund).

## Every update

### IonQ Q3 2026: pro forma sales flat at $215.8M, operating loss $433.1M
*2026-11-09 · The episode*

IonQ reported a profit of $564 million for the third quarter. The profit is the stock falling: the warrant debt shrank by $896.2 million when the share price fell. Pro forma, with everything it bought counted in both years, sales were $215.8 million against $217.3 million a year before. The operating loss was $433.1 million and adjusted EBITDA a loss of $133.6 million.

The price needs 32% a year of organic growth for four years. Next check: the 10-K for 2026, February 25 if IonQ keeps last year's date. The number to watch is fourth-quarter pro forma sales against the same quarter a year before, against 32%. Next to it: the operating loss against $433.1 million and adjusted EBITDA against a loss of $133.6 million.

Sources: [10-Q, Q3 2026](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1824920/000119312526449829/ionq-20260930.htm) · [earnings release](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1824920/000119312526449779/ionq-ex99_1.htm)

Watch the episode: https://shortcircuitcreations.com/episodes/ionq/

Gus has positions in every stock in The Hype Fund. He recommends none of them.