Is Palantir on track for Karp's 2030 goal?

Updated Nov 3, 2026 Q3: US sales +119%, against about +50%. International sales +26%, against about +33%. Coming up: the 10-Q with the head count, for sales per person. Then Q4, in February.

HYPE FUND #3 · $PLTR

Palantir earnings scorecard

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What has to be true for Palantir stock to pay off, checked after every report
What has to be trueEpisode Oct '2620262027202820292030
Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4
America keeps growingUS sales, about +50% a year+110%+119%next
Abroad keeps growinginternational sales, about +33% a year+35%+26%next
The software does the worksales per person, $1.4M → $10.6M$1.4M
$1.4M today$10.6M at Karp's goal
The 2030 mathprofit per share × P/E beats $280P/E 148Settled once, with the 2030 report. At Karp's goal it takes a P/E of 48.2030
Gus didn't sellThe Hype Fund still holds it. Biggest fall since it bought: −20%$194.20heldnext
on trackmissednext reportnot reported yet

2 on track 1 missed 2 still to come

From Palantir's quarterly reports to the SEC: US and international sales growth against the same quarter a year earlier. Sales per person: yearly sales divided by employees, napkin math. Gus's trades are on the Hype Fund page.

After every report

Every update

Palantir Q3 2026 earnings: US sales +119%, international +26%

Palantir's press release says "Crushing Consensus Expectations." In the headline. Humble guys.

On the surface, a monster quarter. US sales +119%, to $1.94 billion. Karp's goal needs about 50% a year. Green box.

But look abroad. +26%, to about $376 million. The goal needs about a third a year. First red box on the board.

So is the plan broken? No. Year so far, abroad is at 32%. One slow quarter. But the quarter was only 4% bigger than Q2, and that's the part to watch.

And you might think, "Fine, America covers it." Right? It does. Gus's math: at 26% a year, abroad lands around $3.8 billion in 2030 instead of $5 billion. About 3% of Karp's $38 billion. America grows more than twice as fast as the goal needs. It eats that for breakfast.

That's also the problem. The plan already needed nine tenths of its growth from America. Now it leans on America even more. And the new contracts signed in the quarter, $2.92 billion, grew 6% while sales grew 96%. Sales are running way ahead of the deals.

Karp says it all "works only in artistic combination." Bro, it's one country carrying the team.

So the plan holds, and it got more fragile. Next check: Q4, in February. Watch abroad and the new contracts.

Sources: earnings release, Q3 2026 · 10-Q, Q3 2025 (international sales a year earlier) · 10-Q, Q2 2026 (international sales, first half) · international sales: total minus US, napkin math

Palantir Q2 2026: US sales +110% in the first half

More than twice what Karp's goal needs. International sales grew 35% in 2026 so far. The price already counts on it: a P/E of 148, against 26 for an S&P 500 index fund.

Next check: Q3, November 2. The number to watch is US sales.

Sources: 10-Q, Q2 2026 · earnings release

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