Is Alphabet stock on track to beat the index?

Next check Alphabet's Q4 report. The date isn't out yet; last year it came on February 4. The number to watch: profit per share without the paper gains, against $2.67. Above it, the pace turned up. At it, no climb in a year. Below it, two quarters down in a row.

HYPE FUND #5 · $GOOGL

Alphabet earnings scorecard

Scroll sideways for every quarter

What has to be true for Alphabet stock, report by report until 2031
What has to be trueEpisode Nov '262026202720282031
Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4
Profit per share without the paper gainsabove $2.67 a quarter, the Q3 2026 number; Q4 is the first reading$2.67next
The cloud keeps 31.9¢ of each dollarGoogle Cloud's operating margin, the line for the index; 23.71¢ a year before36.21¢next
Services grows 8% a yearGoogle Services' operating profit against the same quarter a year before; 9.5% without the legal costs+5.88%next
Cloud sales grow 24.40% a yearthe yearly pace from Q3 2026: $122.8B a year to $365.8B in 2031$30.71Bnext
The stake comes back as cloud profitthe cloud's operating profit on the 30¢ row; the stake is $195B to $205B this year$44.5B
$44.5B a year today$109.7B in 2031
The 2031 math$474 a share on our row (Services 8%, cloud 30¢) against the index's $485$279.84Settled once, with the 2031 report. Three dials: the cloud's margin, Services' growth and the cloud's sales base. With Services between 5.88% and 9.5%: $475 to $535 at 36¢, $441 to $500 at 30¢. The line is 31.9¢.2031
Gus didn't sellThe Hype Fund still holds it. Biggest fall since it bought: −3%$289.93next
on trackmissednext reportnot reported yet

From Alphabet's quarterly reports to the SEC (10-Q and 10-K): profit per share with the gains and losses on its stock holdings taken out (other income), Google Cloud's operating margin, Google Services' operating profit against the same quarter a year earlier, and Google Cloud's sales against the $30.71 billion of Q3 2026. Gus's trades are on the Hype Fund page.

After every report

Every update

Alphabet Q3 2026: profit per share $2.67 without the paper gains, cloud margin 36.21%

On the episode's row the share is worth $474 in 2031: Services profit grows 8% a year and the cloud keeps 30¢ of each dollar. The index puts the stock at $485. The line the cloud has to hold is 31.9¢; in Q3 it kept 36.21¢. Services profit grew 5.88%, 9.5% without the legal costs.

Next check: Q4, date not out yet. The number to watch is profit per share without the paper gains, against $2.67. Report after report: the cloud's margin against 31.9¢, Services' growth against 8% and cloud sales against 24.40% a year.

Sources: 10-Q, Q3 2026 · earnings release

Watch the episode