Next check Dec 9, 2026 Broadcom's Q4 report. The number to watch: the AI sales forecast for next quarter. $24.21B is on the path to the goal. Coming up after it: the 10-K, then the big customers' spending plans for 2027, with their reports in late January.
Scroll sideways for every quarter
| What has to be true | Episode Oct '26 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2028 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | |||
| AI sales on the path to the goalabout +11.58% a quarter: $21.7B, then $24.21B, up to $33.63B, $115B in a year | $16.7B | next | |||||||||
| The customers spend 30% moreAlphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta and Oracle in 2027; Broadcom's slice 7.2¢ → 11.06¢ | ≈ $800B | ||||||||||
| The customers take delivery and Anthropic paysnothing paid out on the $29B guarantee or the $42B loan | $0 paid out | Anthropic's listing filing shows its own numbers. Broadcom's reports show if the guarantee or the loan is used. At Lucent's rate it costs $123 of $10,000. | 2028 | ||||||||
| The margin holdsthe chip business keeps over 55¢ of each dollar as operating profit | 61.28¢ | next | |||||||||
| VMware customers renewsoftware sales, about +10% a year | +29% | next | |||||||||
| The 2028 matha share worth about $335.41 in 2028 at the goal a year late; beating an index fund takes a P/E of 22.42 | P/E 42.83 | Settled once, with the 2028 report. At 20 times profit a share is worth $335.41 with dividends; at Broadcom's own plan, $467.13. | 2028 | ||||||||
| Gus didn't sellThe Hype Fund still holds it. Biggest fall since it bought: −11% | $329.17 | next | |||||||||
From Broadcom's quarterly reports to the SEC: AI sales against the quarter before, the chip business's operating margin, software sales against the same quarter a year earlier. Customer spending from the five builders' filings. Gus's trades are on the Hype Fund page.
The goal, about $115 billion in AI sales in fiscal 2027, needs about 11.58% more every quarter from the Q4 forecast. The price already counts on it a year late: a P/E of 42.83 at $321.68.
Next check: Q4, December 9. The number to watch is the AI forecast for next quarter: $24.21 billion is on the path.