Is IonQ on track?

Next check IonQ's annual report for 2026, the 10-K. The date isn't out yet; last year it came on February 25. The number to watch: pro forma sales in the fourth quarter, the full year minus the nine months, against the same quarter a year before. The line is 32%. Next to it: the operating loss against $433.1 million and adjusted EBITDA against a loss of $133.6 million.

HYPE FUND #6 · $IONQ

IonQ earnings scorecard

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What has to be true for IonQ stock, report by report
What has to be trueEpisode Nov '262026202720282030
Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4
Pro forma sales grow 32% a yearagainst the same quarter a year before, everything IonQ bought counted in both years; Q3: $215.8M against $217.3M−0.68%next
Operating loss under the third quarter'sagainst $433.1M in Q3 2026; $75.7M in Q1 2025, bigger six quarters in a row−$433.1Mnext
Adjusted EBITDA lossthe company's own measure, the warrant line taken out, against a loss of $133.6M in Q3 2026−$133.6Mnext
Share count grows 3% a yearagainst a year before; the bull case counts 3% for staff pay, last year it was 39%+39.49%next
The cash lasts to 2028$1.66B on September 30 and $1.99B from the October raise, against $1.3B a year of free cash flow at Q3's pace$3.65B
Just under $3.7B today$2.49B short of the first profit in 2030
The 2030 math$77.56 a share on the logical bull case, 2.38 times; $47.79 if it goes like the S&P 500$32.62Settled once, with the report for 2030. The logical bull case: half of the $9.5 billion bull market, SkyWater on top, 3% new shares a year. $10,000 becomes $23,776; in the S&P 500 it becomes $14,651. The ceiling, IonQ selling all of it at Nvidia's price: $216.62. Both run out of cash in 2028. With 39% more shares a year, the logical bull case gives $7,270.2030
Gus didn't sellThe Hype Fund still holds it. Biggest fall since it bought: −1%$35.41next
on trackmissednext reportnot reported yet

From IonQ's quarterly reports to the SEC (10-Q and 10-K): pro forma sales from the note on the acquisitions, the fourth quarter as the full year minus nine months; the operating loss; adjusted EBITDA from the earnings release; the share count from the cover against a year earlier. The 2030 row and the cash row are napkin math on the episode's numbers. Gus's trades are on the Hype Fund page.

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IonQ Q3 2026: pro forma sales flat at $215.8M, operating loss $433.1M

IonQ reported a profit of $564 million for the third quarter. The profit is the stock falling: the warrant debt shrank by $896.2 million when the share price fell. Pro forma, with everything it bought counted in both years, sales were $215.8 million against $217.3 million a year before. The operating loss was $433.1 million and adjusted EBITDA a loss of $133.6 million.

The price needs 32% a year of organic growth for four years. Next check: the 10-K for 2026, February 25 if IonQ keeps last year's date. The number to watch is fourth-quarter pro forma sales against the same quarter a year before, against 32%. Next to it: the operating loss against $433.1 million and adjusted EBITDA against a loss of $133.6 million.

Sources: 10-Q, Q3 2026 · earnings release

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