The Scorecard
Every Hype Fund episode ends with a list of what has to be true. Gus checks each list after every report, red as clearly as green.
Next check Dec 9, 2026: Broadcom's Q4 report.
Next check first
Every update
Every update
Every update
Every update
Where each list stands
Broadcom $AVGO
Last updated
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still to come
Broadcom Q3 fiscal 2026: AI sales $16.7 billion, $21.7 billion forecast for Q4
Next check Dec 9, 2026: Broadcom's Q4 report.
Scroll sideways for every quarter
| What has to be true | Episode Oct '26 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2028 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | |||
| AI sales on the path to the goalabout +11.58% a quarter: $21.7B, then $24.21B, up to $33.63B, $115B in a year | $16.7B | next | |||||||||
| The customers spend 30% moreAlphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta and Oracle in 2027; Broadcom's slice 7.2¢ → 11.06¢ | ≈ $800B | ||||||||||
| The customers take delivery and Anthropic paysnothing paid out on the $29B guarantee or the $42B loan | $0 paid out | Anthropic's listing filing shows its own numbers. Broadcom's reports show if the guarantee or the loan is used. At Lucent's rate it costs $123 of $10,000. | 2028 | ||||||||
| The margin holdsthe chip business keeps over 55¢ of each dollar as operating profit | 61.28¢ | next | |||||||||
| VMware customers renewsoftware sales, about +10% a year | +29% | next | |||||||||
| The 2028 matha share worth about $335.41 in 2028 at the goal a year late; beating an index fund takes a P/E of 22.42 | P/E 42.83 | Settled once, with the 2028 report. At 20 times profit a share is worth $335.41 with dividends; at Broadcom's own plan, $467.13. | 2028 | ||||||||
| Gus didn't sellThe Hype Fund still holds it. Biggest fall since it bought: −11% | $329.17 | next | |||||||||
on trackmissednext reportnot reported yet
IonQ $IONQ
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IonQ Q3 2026: pro forma sales flat at $215.8M, operating loss $433.1M
Next check: IonQ's annual report for 2026, the 10-K.
Scroll sideways for every quarter
| What has to be true | Episode Nov '26 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2030 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | |||
| Pro forma sales grow 32% a yearagainst the same quarter a year before, everything IonQ bought counted in both years; Q3: $215.8M against $217.3M | −0.68% | next | |||||||||
| Operating loss under the third quarter'sagainst $433.1M in Q3 2026; $75.7M in Q1 2025, bigger six quarters in a row | −$433.1M | next | |||||||||
| Adjusted EBITDA lossthe company's own measure, the warrant line taken out, against a loss of $133.6M in Q3 2026 | −$133.6M | next | |||||||||
| Share count grows 3% a yearagainst a year before; the bull case counts 3% for staff pay, last year it was 39% | +39.49% | next | |||||||||
| The cash lasts to 2028$1.66B on September 30 and $1.99B from the October raise, against $1.3B a year of free cash flow at Q3's pace | $3.65B | ||||||||||
| The 2030 math$77.56 a share on the logical bull case, 2.38 times; $47.79 if it goes like the S&P 500 | $32.62 | Settled once, with the report for 2030. The logical bull case: half of the $9.5 billion bull market, SkyWater on top, 3% new shares a year. $10,000 becomes $23,776; in the S&P 500 it becomes $14,651. The ceiling, IonQ selling all of it at Nvidia's price: $216.62. Both run out of cash in 2028. With 39% more shares a year, the logical bull case gives $7,270. | 2030 | ||||||||
| Gus didn't sellThe Hype Fund still holds it. Biggest fall since it bought: −1% | $35.41 | next | |||||||||
on trackmissednext reportnot reported yet
Alphabet $GOOGL
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Alphabet Q3 2026: profit per share $2.67 without the paper gains, cloud margin 36.21%
Next check: Alphabet's Q4 report.
Scroll sideways for every quarter
| What has to be true | Episode Nov '26 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2031 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | |||
| Profit per share without the paper gainsabove $2.67 a quarter, the Q3 2026 number; Q4 is the first reading | $2.67 | next | |||||||||
| The cloud keeps 31.9¢ of each dollarGoogle Cloud's operating margin, the line for the index; 23.71¢ a year before | 36.21¢ | next | |||||||||
| Services grows 8% a yearGoogle Services' operating profit against the same quarter a year before; 9.5% without the legal costs | +5.88% | next | |||||||||
| Cloud sales grow 24.40% a yearthe yearly pace from Q3 2026: $122.8B a year to $365.8B in 2031 | $30.71B | next | |||||||||
| The stake comes back as cloud profitthe cloud's operating profit on the 30¢ row; the stake is $195B to $205B this year | $44.5B | ||||||||||
| The 2031 math$474 a share on our row (Services 8%, cloud 30¢) against the index's $485 | $279.84 | Settled once, with the 2031 report. Three dials: the cloud's margin, Services' growth and the cloud's sales base. With Services between 5.88% and 9.5%: $475 to $535 at 36¢, $441 to $500 at 30¢. The line is 31.9¢. | 2031 | ||||||||
| Gus didn't sellThe Hype Fund still holds it. Biggest fall since it bought: −3% | $289.93 | next | |||||||||
on trackmissednext reportnot reported yet
Palantir $PLTR
Last updated
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Palantir Q3 2026 earnings: US sales +119%, international +26%
Next check: The 10-Q with the head count, for sales per person. Then Q4, in February.
Scroll sideways for every quarter
| What has to be true | Episode Oct '26 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | |||
| America keeps growingUS sales, about +50% a year | +110% | +119% | next | |||||||||||||
| Abroad keeps growinginternational sales, about +33% a year | +35% | +26% | next | |||||||||||||
| The software does the worksales per person, $1.4M → $10.6M | $1.4M | |||||||||||||||
| The 2030 mathprofit per share × P/E beats $280 | P/E 148 | Settled once, with the 2030 report. At Karp's goal it takes a P/E of 48. | 2030 | |||||||||||||
| Gus didn't sellThe Hype Fund still holds it. Biggest fall since it bought: −20% | $194.20 | held | next | |||||||||||||
on trackmissednext reportnot reported yet
After every report
Latest updates
- IonQ Q3 2026: pro forma sales flat at $215.8M, operating loss $433.1M
- Alphabet Q3 2026: profit per share $2.67 without the paper gains, cloud margin 36.21%
- Palantir Q3 2026 earnings: US sales +119%, international +26%
- Broadcom Q3 fiscal 2026: AI sales $16.7 billion, $21.7 billion forecast for Q4
- Palantir Q2 2026: US sales +110% in the first half